The Continuing Saga of Tampa Bay Buccaneer Fan!

Buccaneers 24, Vikings 13

2005-09-20T03:10:00.000-07:00

I have seen the future, and his name is Caddy.

Let me get this out of the way first, this game was much closer than the final score, which wasn't a blowout anyway. With under two minutes left, the Vikings were driving for the go-ahead score with the tally 17-13. The defense looked gassed - they weren't stopping anyone. They had a chance to end the game with a fumble by Jim Kleinsasser, but he recovered it despite four Bucs around the ball. Then, two plays later, with the Vikings in a goal to go situation, Culpepper (who looked like a rookie, by the way - a bad rookie) throws a pass to Moe Williams that's *this* close, but instead the ball bounces off his hands and into the waiting hands of Brian Kelly, who snags his second INT of the game. The Bucs run it a couple of times, and need about two yards for the first down that will end things. Instead, Caddy breaks a 71 yard scamber for a score, with an assist by the obstructionist Michael Clayton. Culpepper doesn't really have enough time to do anything with it, and as luck would have it, he doesn't - he throws an interception to Derrick Brooks (which compliments the two he threw to Brian Kelly and his two fumbles on the day) for the ballgame.

Enough about how it ended. Here's how it went:

The Bucs DOMINATED the Vikings in the first half. I think Minny rushed for 26 yards or so in the entire game. Their lone highlight was an 88 yard INT return by Darren Sharper. This is my biggest worry as a Buccaneer fan - Griese may not be over his penchant for throwing six the other way. In any case, the first half was no contest. Caddy's yardage wasn't all that great (you can do the math on 27 carries for 148 yards...after you remove a 71 yard run), but what was impressive was how he turned those "no blocking" situations from one yard gains (Pittman or Alstott) into three or four. Man, I can't imagine what he'll do when the line gels.

Oh, and again, that was 27 carries for Caddy. Somebody say a few kind words about the spread the rock offense in Tampa as it's finally laid to rest. Michael Pittman? Zero carries. Zero. He did drop a pass though. Mike Alstott? One.

Besides the pick to Sharper for six, Griese was his usual ho-hum self - 18 of 29, 213 yards, two TDs, two INTs. It's like Brad Johnson is still with us. Hey, if he adds a few yards to that - maybe 50 - plus a completion or three, and turns the two INTs into one or none, and it's pretty much what we can expect all year. And I'll take it.

Michael Clayton had a lousy game, no way to sugarcoat it. He dropped at least two or three balls, and finished with just 4 catches for 57 yards, well below his averages last season. He was an inch off sideline away from turning that into 4 for 90 and a TD, but if the Queen had balls, as they say. Joey Galloway, on the other hand, brought back memories of his Ohio State years. He caught 5 passes for 97 yards - nearly 20 a pop for the math challenged. He also cleanly beat a top secondary not once but twice, only to be overthrown.

I told you about one TD - the cherry by Caddy. The other two were actually courtesy of another rookie, tight end Alex Smith. He finished with 4 catches for 34 yards, and as I said, half of those were in the end zone. He's listed at 6'3 but he looks like he's about 6'7 when he's standing in the endzone. I would not be the least surprised to see him become one of those stud hybrid tight ends that are so popular now - you know, the Shockeys and Heaps of the game. At the very least, he has a sizably lead in the "best 3rd rounder" derby.

The line was, well...it wasn't as bad as last year, which is encouraging considering there were 3 guys getting broken in. It's a shame, because if Caddy had an elite line in front of him, he'd have gone for 200 or more on Sunday. Still, this group showed promise. The run blocking was indeed lousy. The pass blocking though was cause for cheer - Griese only got sacked twice, which is a coup in Tampa.

Matt Bryant rounded things out on offense by hitting all three of his extra points and a 41 yard field goal in his only attempt.

There isn't enough praise to heap on the defense. The mighty Vikings - four runners deep, six receivers deep, all world line, and a future Hall of Famer (in his prime) at quarterback - looked like the Chicago Bears. Culpepper was sacked twice, and his mobility bought him the split second he need to avoid at least another four. The Vikings leading rusher, Moe Williams, had 15 yards. The guy that started the game, Michael Bennett, had negative one on six carries. All in all, they turned the ball over five times and had 248 total yards. The defense brought a tear to my eye with memories of the great units of 1999 and 2002. They were swarming, gang tackling, and they were hitting. It was a sight.

Brackins Is Back, Minor Correction To Lineup

2005-09-09T05:13:00.000-07:00

First, it turns out there's something else Buccaneer-related I was correct about. Larry Brackins cleared waivers, and he's been signed to fill that mysterious opening on the practice squad. This was the rare shrewd move by Gruden and Co. - wait until everyone else has their rosters set and, and slip the kid under the radar.

In case it isn't readily apparent, I'm very high on this kid. He doesn't have elite speed, but in terms of size, leaping ability, and body control, he could be former Lion Herman Moore's baby brother. He needs a lot of work - he only played for two years in college, and that was JUCO - but come 2007, I wouldn't be surprised to see him starting and playing well.

The minor correction is just that - I had second year right guard Jeb Terry starting on Sunday, according to the team, it'll actually be third year guard/center Sean Mahan who gets the nod. Terry was dealing with minor injuries during the preseason, and Mahan started nearly half of last season at center last year, after John Wade was injured.

Projected Starting Lineup For Opening Day

2005-09-08T06:27:00.000-07:00

Three days! Three days! Wow, I'm jazzed!

Anyway, with the line coming into focus, I was thinking about doing a post on just those guys, but I ultimately decided just to post the entire starting lineup. This is based on everything I've read and heard from the horse's mouth regarding the Minnesota game. I have to admit, I'm impressed in general with the youth movement. It's a year too late, but this will be a much younger Buc team, especially on offense.

After a strong 2004, Brian Griese returns as the quarterback. The biggest question regards if the full offseason has helped him learn the offense. If it has, he's a dark horse Pro Bowl canidate.

At tailback, Carnell Williams will be on the field for snap one. How many carries he gets is a big question, but against Minnesota's still forming defense, he could get off to a big start and never look back.

When Gruden goes with a traditional fullback, look for Mike Alstott on the field. Alstott may also get carries behind Jameel Cook. Also look for Mike Pittman to get his touches, spelliing Williams, on third and long, and (especially) as a receiver split out or out of the backfield.

Michael Clayton and Joey Galloway will be the starting receivers. When the team goes three-wide, expect Ike Hilliard on the outside and Galloway in the slot, where his raw speed will give safeties headaches. When the team goes four wide, expect to see promising but skinny Edell Sheppard join the fray.

6th offensive lineman Anthony Becht will play on running downs, and occasionally slip out for a play-action pass. When the team goes double tight-end, which I expect to see more often than in the past, Alex Smith, the basketball player-like rookie from Stanford, will join him. Smith won't be asked to block very much until he improves at it, but he should exploit some mismatches with his size and athleticism.

I had wished and hoped for a youth movement on the offensive line, and I got it big time. Future Pro Bowler (mark my words) Anthony Davis will be the starting left tackle, taking over for the departed Derrick Deese. Rookie Badger Dan Buenning is the new left guard, with incumbent Matt Stinchcomb both ailing and lousy when he's healthy. John Wade, still in his prime, is the center again, one of only two returning starters. Second year man Jeb Terry is the new right guard, after a second great camp in a row. He takes over for sloppy, unmotivated Cosey Coleman, now of the Browns. The 2nd returning starter is 5th year man Kenyatta Walker at right tackle.

The defensive line will return three of four starters from last year - and possibly all four. Anthony McFarland will start and under tackle. If he's healthy (JUMBO IF), he will have a huge impact. The team allowed fifteen fewer rushing yards a game last year when he played. Simeon Rice will be the right end, after another pro bowl quality season. Greg Spires, coming off a career year, will be the left end. The nose tackle will either be last year's starter, Ellis Wyms, or comeback player of the year canidate Chris Hovan, late of the Vikings. The title of "starter" is almost ceremonial in this case, as both will see a lot of the field.

Death, taxes, and Derrick Brooks on the weakside. In the middle, Shelton Quarles is back for likely his last go-around with the team. The new strongside guy (which has always been a revolving door under Monte Kiffin) will be Ryan Nece, who started the entire 2003 campaign but was benched last year for Ian Gold. It was thought that job would go to Jeff Gooch, but he blew a calf late in the preseason and is on IR for the year.

For the 6th year in a row, Brian Kelly and Ronde Barber are your starting corners. Jermaine Phillips is shifting from free safety to strong safety. Former Superbowl MVP Dexter Jackson will man the free safety spot, unless Will Allen sneaks up on him. Juran Bolden will be the 5th defensive back.

For the first time since 1999, the Bucs will enter the season with a kicker who isn't Martin Gramatica. Journeyman Matt Bryant, a Giant last season, is the new kicker, and like Martha Stewart says, "It's a good thing." Former Packer Josh Bidwell is back as the punter after a solid 2004 season.

The kick returner will probably be 3rd year cornerback Torrie Cox. He looked lights out in limited duty last season. The punt returner will almost certainly be newly acquired (like, yesterday) former Buc draft pick and Giant Mark Jones.

I'll tell you, I've been down on this team all offseason, but good health, and even modest improvements in the offensive line and kicking game, and this could be a nine win playoff team. With this essentially a rebuilding-retooling-whatever year, so a playoff birth would be a huge bonus to us once again suffering fans.

Brackins Released

2005-09-08T00:42:00.000-07:00

The tenure of 5th round draft pick Larry Brackins has come to an end, five whole days after surviving cut day.

Brackins was released to make room for punt return specialist (and erstwhile reciever) Mark Jones. Mark Jones, as the hardcores may remember, was a 7th round draft pick of the team in 2004, only to be released during camp of that year. He was picked about by the Giants, and did a servicable job returning kicks in New York. He will probably serve as the primary punt returner and co-kick returner with Torrie Cox.

Brackins didn't do much during the preseason because of injury - 2 catches for 19 yards. It was felt he made the team because of his upside (he has Randy Moss size) and the understanding that after playing in Junior College, he would need time to grow. I don't know what changed between Saturday and today. I suppose the team realized it had a gaping hole in the return game, and sought to fill it. Hopefully, Brackins will clear waivers and find a spot on the practice squad. That is likely one of the reasons the team waiting to cut him - most teams have their rosters and practice squads set, so there's a better chance he'll clear.

Speaking of the practice squad, the signing of Jones meant the release of DeAndrew Rubin, whose return abilities are no longer needed. To fill that spot, the team added hulking fomer Duke tackle Drew Strotny, formerly a draft pick of those same New York Giants.

It is worth noting that a practice squad spot has been open since the group was announced on Monday. Will it be filled with Brackins? Has that been the plan all along? We should know soon.

Practice Squad Named

2005-09-07T05:58:00.000-07:00

As promised, here is a brief look at the nine guys who will be members of the Buccaneers practice squad to start the season. These are players who can be called up at any time to take roster spots if the need arises. The downside is, other teams can sign them to their active rosters also. It's interesting to note that all nine spots were filled with players who were in Buccaneer camp, and that no waiver claims were claimed at all. That probably means Gruden feels good about this group.

Tailback Derek Watson was a bubble boy who lost out because of Earnest Graham's bang up preseason. If one of the backs gets injured, this rookie will likely take the 4th runningback job on the active roster.

Wide receiver DeAndrew Rubin starred at Raymond James Stadium as a USF bull. Now, he's back - almost. Although he's not as talented a receiver as the four young wideouts on the roster, he might be a viable option in the return game. If special teams are sputtering or there's a rash of injuries at receiver, Rubin will join the squad.

Center Scott Jackson had a solid camp, but with John Wade healthy and Sean Mahan able to play center if need be, he lost out in a numbers game. If the offensive line continues to be as injury prone as they were in camp, he could find himself with the team before long.

Defensive end Andrew Williams was claimed off waivers from the 49ers at the very end of camp. He had a sack in his only preseason appearance. He's a former day one pick and he has some skill. If he develops in practice, there's an excellent chance he could win a job - and maybe even regular playing time - before the season is out.

Linebacker Matt Grootegoed looked like a lock to make the roster, before the team opted to go with seven receivers and a scant five linebackers. The odds of all five staying healthy all year are paper-thin, so it's very likely Grootegoed will find his way on the team at some point. The former USC star may even be in the team's future plans already.

Defensive backs James Patrick and Kalvin Pearson are both very raw, and will need some practice before they are ready to contribute to the club. Both have ability, and if the team's luck with DB injuries continue, one or both may see PT this season.

There is one more spot still open. As of Wednesday, it was still open.

There is additionally a slot allocated to a foreign born player, as sort of a goodwill ambassadorship thing. This year, that spot goes to safety Claudius Osei. I have no idea what his nationality might be, but I do know he played at Florida State. His spot does not count against the limit, but he cannot join the active roster at any point.

Rating The Buccaneers, Top To Bottom

2005-09-07T05:39:00.000-07:00

Now that we know the particulars, it's time to rate the units, on the old, familiar to A-F scale. Scientific? No. But hey, Dan Pompei does it and gets paid well. Also included is a quick analysis of the same units entering last season, and a verdict if the team improved, stayed the same, or regressed.

QUARTERBACKS - B

Best Case?
Brian Griese continues to build on a solid first season in Tampa, cutting down on his clutch interceptions, and playing at a near pro bowl level. Either Simms or McCown shows enough to be the answer behind him, or perhaps in the long term.

Worse Case?
Brian Griese implodes, which has happened, or gets drunk and hurts himself, which has also happened. Chris Simms continues to justify my hate. Luke McCown is too raw to beat anybody.

My Guess?
Brian Griese will neither take the next step nor a step backward. He won't lose many games himself, nor will he take the team on his shoulders. Gruden will probably look to use a top pick on the position next year.

Vs. 2004?
This looks like a better unit than we opened up with last year. Brian Griese can't be as bad as old age made Brad Johnson last season. Brian Griese better stay healthy though, because Chris Simms is next in line, again.

Runningbacks - B

Best Case?
Carnell is the real deal. Nuff said. Pittman embraces his backup role and produces in the passing game. Earnest Graham and Mike Alstott provide some short yardage pop. Roundhouse Rick Razzano mentors under Alstott, and doesn't beat up any accountants, and Jameel Cook does his usual steady job as the traditional fullback.

Worst Case?
Carnell is John Avery Jr. Pittman keeps fumbling and pouts about his lack of reps. Earnest Graham isn't ready for primetime, and Alstott has nothing left.

My Guess?
Carnell will have his moments, but he will be uneven behind this line. Pittman will be one of the better backups in the league. Alstott won't contribute much but will give the fans a few parting gift moments. Razzano will supplant Cook as the fullback, and will prepare for a larger role in 2006.

Vs. 2004?
Unless Carnell is terrible, this should be an upgrade. Pittman missed the first three games on suspension, and Charlie Garner blew a knee. Now, Carnell is the man, and Pittman is the backup. Alstott staying healthy - iff - would also help.

Wide Receivers - B

Best Case?
Mike Clayton builds on a boffo rookie year. Galloway stays healthy and does for an entire season what he did for the last month of last year - smoke the occasional defense and open up the underneath. Ike Hilliard is reliable as the 3rd guy on the underneath stuff. Edell Sheppard makes a case for a starting job in 2006.

Worst Case?
Clayton sophomore slumps, Galloway has his annual injury - and it's a biggie, and Hilliard either gets hurts or doesn't have anything in the tank. Plus, none of the pups develop.

My Guess?
This unit will be inconsistent, but if they all stay healthy, they should be one of the better units on the team. It would be nice to have a complete receiver opposite Clayton, instead of two limited guys, but the talent is here. One of the young guys stepping up will be gravy.

Vs. 2004?
It isn't a fair comparison. The 2004 group entered the season banged up, and scrubs like Tim Brown and Bill Schroeder saw time early. Michael Clayton is a year old, and as of right now, Galloway is healthy. This is a vastly improved group. Ike Hilliard will provide insurance, and instead of crusty vets playing in case of emergency, it will be young guys with upside.

Tight End - A-

Best Case?
Anthony Becht will blow open holes in the run game and catch the odd pass, plus his dropsies in the red zone will go away. Alex Smith will exploit the seam and provide the Bucs with a "next gen" type tight end receiving threat. Dave Moore will snap the ball well and be effective blocking in the jumbo sets. Nate Lawrie will make a case for Moore's job next year.

Worst Case?
Anthony Becht is in over his head in the running game with little offensive line help, and continues to have hands of stone. Alex Smith isn't physical enough to beat press coverage in the pros. Dave Moore just gets older, and Nate Lawrie doesn't contribute.

My Guess?
Anthony Becht will help the run game greatly. He will make a few nice redzone grabs, but he will drop some also. Alex Smith will be inconsistent, and he will miss some blocks, but he will have a few "whoa" moments in the passing game. Dave Moore might make a sentimental red zone catch, but will mostly not be mentioned. Ditto Nate Lawrie, though "sentimental" becomes "promising."

Vs. 2004?
This is the most upgraded position on the team from last year. Ken Dilger had little left last year, Rickey Dudley was a nonfactor, and Will Heller was nothing special. The improvements to this position will be noticed every game, if not nearly every drive.

Offensive Line - C-

Best Case?
Anthony Davis continues kicking defense end rear. Matt Stinchcomb doesn't suck. John Wade stays healthy and is his usual rock solid self. The right guard - Terry? Buenning? - shows promise. Kenyatta Walker continues to grow. On the whole, the best case scenario is simply the line showing promise and not short circuiting too many plays before they develop.

Worst Case?
The injuries that plagued the unit in the preseason continue. Anthony Davis can't handle the talented ends in the NFC South. Stinchcomb successfully defends his title as the worst offensive lineman in the NFL. Wade is still suffering from his knee injury. The right guard is in over his head. Kenyatta Walker regresses with the penalties.

My Guess?
Unlike last year's line, there's hunger with this group. While they will not be confused with Kansas City, they will be good enough to keep Brian Griese upright and give Carnell Williams a fighting shot at rookie of the year.

Vs. 2004?
This group can't be anyworse than the 2004 line, which may have been the worst healthy starting five in the NFL in the last decade. There are a few potential studs in Anthony Davis, Sean Mahan, and Jeb Terry, and Kenyatta Walker is a year better. This line will be mediocre, which is good, and average next year, which is great.

Defensive Line - A

Best Case?
Anthony McFarland will stay healthy. Chris Hovan will make a run at comeback player of the year. Greg Spires will build on a career year. Simeon Rice will again be among the league leaders in sacks. Dewayne White will again be one of the best 3rd defensive ends in the league. The depth guys, specifically, Ellis Wyms, will maintain the high level of the starters.

Worst Case?
Booger will get hurt, again. Hovan will show why he couldn't crack the top nine defensive lineman rotation in Minny last season. Simeon Rice will only get garbage time sacks, Greg Spires will be a one-year wonder, and White won't improve.

My Guess?
Booger WILL get hurt, but hopefully not for too long. Chris Hovan will split the difference between his "on" years and his "off" years. Simeon Rice will have the same year he always seems to have - alternately dominating and disappearing. Greg Spires and Dewayne White will be a solid rotation.

Vs. 2004?
Well, that depends on injuries. Last season, 33 year old, 265 pound Chidi Ahanotu was starting at defensive tackle. Hopefully, nothing like that will happen again. A healthy McFarland and Chris Hovan will really help against the run. The pass rush will only improve if Dewayne White takes his game to the next level, though.

Linebackers - B

Best Case?
Derrick Brooks has another few strong years in him. Ditto Shelton Quarles. Ryan Nece takes the next step after an on again, off again apprenticeship. Barrett Ruud gets ready to start in 2006. Ditto Marquis Cooper. And Jeff Gooch successfully rehabs from his injury.

Worst Case?
If an aging linebacker corp suddenly becomes OLD, and the young pups, specifically Cooper and Ruud, aren't ready to take the reigns, the Buc defense will become very average, very quickly.

My Guess?
Nobody will confuse this group with, well, the same group of three years ago. That said, the starters should play well as a unit for at least another season, and Ruud and Cooper should be ready to start by next year. For yet another year, this group will excel against the pass and get blown up far too often against the run.

Vs. 2004?
Big step backwards. Ian Gold was a much better player than Ryan Nece. Brooks and Quarles were a year younger. While a big part of this year should be getting Ruud and Cooper ready for 2006, this unit will suffer under old age and slight build this season.

Defensive Backs - B-

Best Case?
Health is a good start. Barber and Kelly are still an elite duo, but they need to stay healthy. Juran Bolden is servicable 3rd corner. Torrie Cox and/or Blue Adams step up in the dime. At safety, Jermaine Phillips plays more instinctive and shows the benefits of a year starting, and the Dexter Jackson/Will Allen duo doesn't give up many big plays. Plus, young guys like Donte Nicholson and Allen develop.

Worst Case?
Kelly and/or Barber miss significant time to injury. Bolden doesn't provide an upgrade over departed nickelback bust Mario Edwards. Phillips continues to give up big plays. Jackson is a year too old, and Allen is a year too young.

My Guess?
I think this unit will be solid, but not spectacular. The pass rush will need to be explosive to cover for a general lack of speed from the corners and instincts from the safeties. Simply put, this unit will be as good as the front seven allows them to be.

Vs. 2004?
Losing Dwight Smith hurts. He was a ballhawk and a hitter, and he was just entering his prime. This is another unit, particularily at corner, that may show it's age soon. Only a quantum leap from Jermaine Phillips can keep this unit from being below the usually high Buc standards.

Special Teams - B

Best Case?
Matt Bryant as even an average kicker would be great. Josh Bidwell continues his solid punting. Torrie Cox looked like he has the stuff to be a boffo kick returner. Joey Galloway makes good on his speed in the punt return game.

Worst Case?
Matt Bryant shows why he's a journeyman. Bidwell goes back to his Green Bay form. Torrie Cox turns out to be a flash in the pan, and Joey Galloway continues to not exploit his elite speed returning punts.

My Guess?
The kickers will be adequate. Not pro bowl or anything, but good enough not to cost the team many games or too much field position to overcome. The return game will continue to be a weakness of the team, and the dreaded streak we all know and hear about every single week will continue for another year.

Vs. 2004?
Second verse same as the first, except at kicker. Matt Bryant can be mediocre and still provide a HUGE improvement over deposed Martin Gramatica. Plus, not having Tim "fair catch" Brown fair-catching every single punt will help some.

Congrats To The Bubble Boys Who Made It!

2005-09-04T04:06:00.000-07:00

I just wanted to take a moment to give props to the veteran guys (not the rooks) who could have gone either way, but made their ways onto the opening day roster. I hope they are productive and successful here in Tampa, and I'm sure we'll be seeing a lot more of some of them in the next few years. Again, congrats!

Actual 53 Man Roster (And hey, I'm pretty good at this!)

2005-09-04T03:52:00.000-07:00

Cut day has come and gone, and now we know how the roster will look when the season starts, barring of course any practice injuries in the next week. I have to say, I was pretty spot on, with only a couple of misses. Below are the guys who made it, and the guys who didn't, position by position.

One other note - the nine man practice squad (the ninth man will be an international exemption) will be announced later in the week, and of course I'll have something on that when it breaks.

Quarterbacks
-----------------
IN: Brian Griese, Chris Simms, Luke McCown
OUT: None

Nothing more to be said. The extra guy, Jared Allen, was cut in the last round. There was no fat to trim.

Runningbacks
-------------------
IN: Carnell Williams, Michael Pittman, Earnest Graham, Mike Alstott (FB), Jameel Cook (FB), Rick Razzano (FB)

OUT: Derek Watson

It's a minor surprise that Watson was cut and Razzano is staying on. I guess the plan is to have Mike Alstott work purely as a situational, short-yardage guy, and not to use him at fullback at all. Derek Watson has some ability, but a bad attitude and the impressive (amazing?) preseason by Earnest Graham made him expendable.

Wide Receiver
------------------

IN: Michael Clayton, Joey Galloway, Ike Hilliard, Edell Sheppard, Larry Brackins, Paris Warren, JR Russell

OUT: DeAndrew Rubin, Derek McCoy, Terrance Metcalf

I can't honestly say I've ever seen a team take seven healthy wide receivers into the season. In the end, Brackins, Warren, and Russell all did enough to stay on board. I guess it's not a bad idea, considering the injury history of Galloway and Hilliard, and the slight build of Edell Sheppard. It also indicates that Galloway and Hilliard may be coming to the end of their tenures after this season.

TE
----
IN: Anthony Becht, Alex Smith, Dave Moore, Nate Lawrie

OUT: Will Heller

Another surprise, the team keeps four tight ends. I suppose Dave Moore is going to be more used as a longsnapper than from scrimmage, and Nate Lawrie was too impressive in the preseason to cut.

OL
----
IN: Anthony Davis, Matt Stinchcomb, Jeb Terry, Sean Mahan, John Wade, Chris Colmer, Dan Buenning, Kenyatta Walker, Todd Steussie

OUT: Derrick Deese, Sam Lightbody, Jon Clicksdale, Scott Jackson

Deese is the big name cut of the team. His inability to recover from his foot injury made him expendable, as did the emergence of Anthony Davis. The other three cuts were predictable.

DL
----
IN: Anthony McFarland, Chris Hovan, Ellis Wyms, Simeon Rice, Greg Spires, Dewayne White, Anthony Bryant, Jon Bradley

OUT: Delbert Cowsette, Josh Savage, Brian Save, Andrew Williams

This was predictable, except for unheralded Jon Bradley beating out Andrew Williams and Josh Savage for the final job. I can't wait to see this kid on the field - Savage and Williams can play, so he must have some real ability.

LB
---
IN: Derrick Brooks, Shelton Quarles, Marquis Cooper, Barrett Ruud, Ryan Nece

OUT: Matt Grootegoed, Josh Buhl, Jermaine Taylor

IR: Jeff Gooch

The flipside shocker to the team keeping seven wideouts is the team only keeping five linebackers. That's a frightening prospect, and should a couple of guys get hurt - which is plausible - we could see a street free agent starting two days after being signed. I certainly thought that if Gooch were IRed, which he was, the team would keep Buhl or Grootegoed for depth purposes. Undoubtedly, one or more of these guys will find their way to the practice squad.

DB
----
IN: Ronde Barber, Brian Kelly, Donte Nicholson, Dexter Jackson, Jermaine Phillips, Blue Adams, Juran Bolden, Torrie Cox

OUT: Hamza Abdullah, Kalvin Pearson, James Patrick

No real surprises here. Blue Adams was the only guy really fighting for his spot. Abdullah is the only guy drafted this year, out of about a dozen guys, to be cut. That's the sign of either a good draft or a terrible team. Both, in this case.

Specialists
-------------

IN: Matt Bryant (K), Josh Bidwell (P)

OUT: Todd France (K), Brian Simjanovski (P)

As I predicted, Gruden went with the known commodity in Bryant. Simjanovski was only here to audition for other teams and keep Bidwell's leg fresh.

There you have it, your 2005 Buccaneers opening day roster. I will post the practice squad, or any waivers claims, when they occur.

Tick Tock

2005-09-03T05:35:00.000-07:00

As I type this (can we really say "write" anymore), it's roughly ten hours before the league imposed deadline for submitting the final, 53 man roster. The Bucs are 23 over that number right now. While it certain that some players will be "injured reserved," which counts towards the cutdown, the only vets, thankfully, in that position are Derrick Deese, who continues to nurse a bum foot, and Jeff Gooch, who apparently has some kind of nasty pull/strain/tear (the team won't specificy) that is going to at least keep him out of the Minnesota game.

Instead of predicting the cuts, as I did last time, I'm going to predict the final, 53 man roster that I expect to see come 3pm this afternoon.

Quarterbacks
-----------------
Brian Griese
Chris Simms
Luke McCown

This is the only "slam dunk" of the position battles. Unless there's a practice injury, these will be the quarterbacks entering the season.

Runningbacks
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Carnell Williams
Michael Pittman
Derek Watson
Earnest Graham
Mike Alstott (FB)
Jameel Cook (FB)

There's a chance that either Watson or Graham could be cut. I'm banking that the strong preseasons had by each will win them jobs. Everyone else is a lock. Carnell was the top pick, Pittman is a slam dunk as the backup. Alstott won't be cut simply because of his value as a leader and to the fanbase. Jameel Cook is the only legit fullback on the roster, though he faces a challenge from "roundhouse" Rick Razzano for the job.

Wide Receiver
------------------
Michael Clayton
Joey Galloway
Ike Hilliard
Edell Sheppard
JR Russell
Larry Brackins

Gruden says it's up in the air if the team will keep five or six receivers. I think six is the minimum, with all the young talent at the position. The top four spots are locked. Three receivers - 5th rounder Larry Brackins and fellow 7th rounders JR Russell and Paris Warren - vie for the last two spots. Russell has been a preseason stud, with 11 grabs for 139 yards and a score. Brackins did not contribute much in the preseason, but the team expected as much. He will get the final spot over Warren simply on the basis that it's 50/50 the team will lose Warren if he has to go through waivers (before joining the practice squad), but losing Brackins, with his incredible upside, would be a given. Note also the absence of DeAndrew Rubin, former USF star. He's been a good punt returner this preseason, but he walked into a loaded position battle. If the return game falters, he could be brought back during the season.

Tight End
------------
Anthony Becht
Alex Smith
Dave Moore

The first two are a given. Dave Moore's longsnapping ability, veteran leadership (which Gruden seems to value in a player), and reliability will win him the job over Nate Lawrie and Will Heller.

Offensive Line
------------------
Anthony Davis
Matt Stinchcomb
John Wade
Sean Mahan
Kenyatta Walker
Jeb Terry
Dan Buenning
Chris Colmer
Todd Steussie

This assumes Derrick Deese is put on IR. If he's not, you can count Steussie out (here's hoping). This group is like a poorly cooked steak - grizzled on the outside, raw in the middle.

Defensive Line
------------------
Anthony McFarland
Chris Hovan
Simeon Rice
Greg Spires
Dewayne White
Anthony Bryant
Andrew Williams
Ellis Wyms

This is a good young group. Everyone there is a given. Williams look good in his only preseason appearance, and the team is high on him. Josh Savage likely lost his job when Williams came aboard.

Linebackers
----------------

Derrick Brooks
Shelton Quarles
Ryan Nece
Barrett Ruud
Marquis Cooper
Matt Grootegoed

If Jeff Gooch ends up on IR - a possibility - this is what the linebackers will look like. Grootegoed will be gone if Quarles comes back and Gruden decides he only needs six linebackers. Josh Buhl is a darkhorse.

Defensive Backs

Ronde Barber
Brian Kelly
Jermaine Phillips
Dexter Jackson
Will Allen
Juran Bolden
Torrie Cox
Donte Nicholson
Blue Adams

Barber, Kelly, Jackson, Allen, and Phillips are the only "bet my life on it" sure things. Juran Bolden is the likely nickelback. He's a vet with good ball skills, and he's played well in the preseason. Torrie Cox is a boffo kick returner and showed flashes at cornerback last season. He'll likely be the 4th guy. The only sure thing at safety is Jermaine Phillips at SS. Will Allen and Dex Jackson are fighting for the FS job. Donte Nicholson will probably back up Phillips. If the team decides it needs a 5th corner, it'll probably be Blue Adams.

Specialists
-------------
Matt Bryant (K)
Josh Bidwell (P)

Bidwell will be the punter. In the tense battle between Bryant and Todd France, I give Bryant the edge (though I think France has much more upside) because he's the known commodity here, and Gruden almost always errs on the side of the known commodity.

So, there you have it. We'll see this afternoon how close I was.

Buccaneers 38 Texans 14

2005-09-03T03:50:00.000-07:00

Boy howdy, talk about starting the season with a little "mo!" The Bucs routed the Texans tonight - the game wasn't even as close as the lopsided score. Tampa's first string D picked off David Carr twice in the first quarter - the first by nickelback Juran Bolden, who helped his cause, and the other by primetime Ronde Barber. Carr would finish one of five for four yards and two picks against the first string D...if that's not a good sign, I don't know what is.

The hero was Chris "Powder" Simms, who probably, unfortunately, locked up the backup job with his play. He threw 12 of 16 for 163 yards and three, count 'em three touchdown passes. Have I changed my mind about him? No. The Texans did NOT look ready to play, and he did it against the backups. Still, it's encouraging.

Luke McCown also played well in limited reps. He completed 4 of 6 passes for 44 yards and a TD. Young receivers Edell Sheppard, JR Russell, Paris Warren, and tight end Nate Lawrie all caught TDs. Mike Alstott also ran one in. Newly acquired defensive end Andrew Williams helped his chances of making the final roster with a nasty sack of Preston Parsons in the fourth quarter. Matt Bryant may have won the kicking job with a 53 yard beauty in the first quarter.

Carnell Williams carried twice for 7 yards, and caught a pass for six yards. The lack of carries he's received in the preseason leads me to wonder how ready for primetime he will be, but hey, at least he's healthy.

Earnest Graham had his quietest preseason game, rushing 5 times for 16 yards and catching 2 passes for 25 yards. He was kept out of the endzone after scoring 5 times in the first 3 games. Hopefully, this is not cause to cut him.

As I said, the game was not as close as the score. The game was love 24 when the starters left, and 38-zip before Houston scored two garbage time TDs. Also, although the yardage was near even - Tampa 327-305, 120 of those Texan yards came on two long pass plays.

Welcome To Tampa, Andrew Williams

2005-08-31T06:21:00.000-07:00

The Bucs signed 49er cut Andrew Williams off waivers on Tuesday. Although we can't say for certain who would have made the team had the team not claimed Williams, the smart money is on Bryant McNeal, since McNeal was the only defense end cut, and he was considered to be *right* on the bubble.

Williams is a former Miami Hurricane standout and former 3rd round draft choice. He was ineffectual with the Niners as an end. When new coach Mike Nolan decided to try the 3-4 defense, he was converted to OLB, but obviously he wasn't up for the transition.

Physically, at 6'3 270, he's very similar to Greg Spires, another scrap heap guy who made good in Tampa. Logically, he will return to end here, in Tampa's undersized, speed oriented 4-3. There's little reason to believe the light will go on, based on his play with the Niners. That said, he couldn't ask to land in a better place. He'll have the defensive coaching the Niners have lacked during his tenure, and a system that fits his skills.

Tuesday Cuts! Hasta La Vista, Charlie Garner!

2005-08-31T06:05:00.000-07:00

As my regular, ummm, reader knows from prior posts, the Buccaneers needed to cut 15 players before 4PM EST on Tuesday. They did so, with one more to boot (more on that later).

The headliner, the Tara Reid name you know in the direct to DVD horror flick filmed in Toronto, was Charlie Garner. Charlie Garner, who has Todd Steussie to thank for not being the Todd Steussie of the Gruden era.

Garner was brought on board in the empty, gluttonous 2004 offseason. He was one of Gruden's fishing buddies from Oaktown, and despite being 33 years old (ancient for a running back), coming off a major knee injury, and having a game predicated on speed and agility because of his substandard size (5'10, 190). Garner was given a 5 year, 19.7 million dollar contract (most of that in "funny money"), with a very unfunny 3.7 million dollar signing bonus. A running back was needed, mainly because of Michael Pittman's 3 game suspension to open the season (for playing bumper cars with his wife), but the league was shocked when Garner was given such a lucrative deal.

Long story short, Garner carried 33 times for 100 yards, before predictably blowing out his knee, again. He made $37,000 a yard in bonuses alone. And the team lost all three games anyway.

The only reason Todd Steussie is the Todd Steussie of the Gruden era is, Todd Steussie didn't have an injury to blame his flaming crapiness on. So I suppose he should send old Todd (who still has a job here) a Christmas card this year. With the $4 mil plus Jon Gruden gave him, he can afford a nice, Hallmarky one too.

The big positive here, besides yet another nail in the coffin of the Gruden era that is admitting another HUGE personnel gaff, is that the team obviously is very high on youngsters Derek "Lawrence Phillips Jr" Watson and Preseason Hall of Famer Earnest Graham.

Okay, enough of that. On to the other 15 cuts.

QB Jared Allen. I had written that he had already been cut by the team, weeks ago. That was actually true. I didn't realize he'd been resigned. Well, it doesn't matter, because he's been cut again.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? It means that Gruden wants to give plenty of reps to Luke McCown and Chris Simms in final practices of the preseason, to better determine the primary backup.

G Phil Bogle. The recently signed former Charger starter was a loser in a numbers game. Theres's actually a good chance he'll catch on somewhere.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? The line is finally getting healthy, and there are enough warm bodies to start the season without him.

G Doug Buckles. Apparently, Buckles had an appendectomy in camp, which limited his ability to show what he can do.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? Well, it means that it's tough to compete for a job in the NFL fresh off an appendectomy. Also, all that other stuff that applied to Bogle about the line getting healthy.

WR Chris Davis. He was pretty much a camp body this year, after spending 2004 on the Giants practice squad.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? It means he won't be the miracle no name who makes the final roster. It also means that our young drafted trio - Russell, Warren, and Brackins likely will.

DT Damian Gregory. He had a decent chance to make the team, but he injured his shoulder against the Dolphins. It's a shame, because there's a chance he could have contributed. Depending on the severity of the injury, he could be resigned at some point during the season.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? It means he was on the bubble as it was, and the shoulder injury popped it. It also means the team feels pretty good about Chris Hovan and the other project DTs.

LB Byron Hardmon. The former Florida Gator couldn't crack perhaps the deepest unit on the team.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? It simply means that there are better options at OLB available to the team at this point.

FB Steve Kriewald. The bruising Husker back couldn't do enough to convince the team they needed another fullback.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? It means you'll see four running backs make the team, and it means you'll see a lot of Jameel Cook and some of Mike Alstott at FB.

WR Derrick Lewis. Despite making the active roster for a game last season - no mean feat - Lewis loses the numbers game.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? See Chris Davis. The young trio is progressing nicely, and there simply won't be room for one of these camp body types to crack the final roster, barring injury.

DT Lynn McGruder. Former OU standout simply did not have size, athleticism, or tools to play at this level. Though he reminded me a bit of Brad Culpepper, he simply lacked the motor to overcome his shortcomings.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? Again, this is an indication that the team is happy with Chris Hovan, Ellis Wyms, and the other DTs on the roster.

DE Bryant McNeal. Former Bronoco bust looked like he had a fighting chance to make the team, but former 49er Andrew Williams (see below) seemed like a better option to the team.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? It means you can expect Josh Savage, and/or Andrew Williams will make the team. It also means he simply isn't going to recapture whatever made him a pass rushing terror in college.

LS Brian Sawyer. He was brought in when longsnapper Dave Moore broke his finger, to preform the longsnapping duties in practice and preseason games.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? Well, obviously it means that Dave Moore's finger is feeling better.

RB Ian Smart. Smart, whose 25 yard scamper was a highlight last season, simply lost out to more physically gifted runners. Here's hoping he catches on somewhere else.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? I'd say it means you can count on Derek Watson AND Earnest Graham making the team. If one of the backs gets injured, though, I wouldn't be surprised if Smart's phone is the first to ring.

CB Ronyell Whitaker. Hardcore fans remember him as one of the "in over his head" rookies to see duty in the defensive backfield in 2003. Last year, the former Hokie spent his time on the practice squad.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? It's encouraging, in that Whitaker is a player who could have contributed if there were major shortcomings at cornerback. Expect to see Juran Bolden, Torrie Cox, and another youngster on the final roster.

T Sam Wilder. Brought in by trade (!), the former Cowboy OT was made expendable by the return to health of several key linemen.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? It means Kenyatta Walker and Derrick Deese will be up to playing soon, and Chris Colmer is coming along. Still, I wish we hadn't traded a pick for this guy!

WR Kevin Youngblood. All the other comments about the wide receivers apply. Youngblood had a fighting chance because of his experience on the practice squad.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? It means this will probably be year 3 on the practice squad for Youngblood.

SO WHAT'S NEXT?
Well, between roster exemptions and the next wave of cuts, there are 23 guys who will be former Buccaneers come Saturday at 4PM. I'll surely have more info on who those guys might be sometime during the week.

Dolphins 17 Bucs 14

2005-08-31T05:19:00.000-07:00

No real "big stories" come out of this game. Thankfully, there were no injuries - that's usually the most important thing to report after any preseason game, especially when you have enough offensive linemen hurt to field a Mean Machine team (that is, if the talent was there, har har).

The biggest thing that jumps out at me is the game Earnest Graham had. Graham at this point is the LaDanian Tomlinson of preseason football. Again, he played about a half. Again, he was the leading rusher for the Bucs - 14 carries, 60 yards. The highlight of the game, for Graham, the Bucs, and the fans, was a gorgeous TD run in the 3rd quarter. The play was designed to go left, and Graham ran left, got hemmed in, and REVERSED HIS FIELD, came across the field back to the right, and ran it in 19 yards for the score.

I'm not a Graham fan, but after the FIVE touchdowns (and counting) he's scored in the preseason, there's something wrong with the system if he doesn't make the team.

Carnell Williams got a bit more work, rushing for 28 yards on 5 carries behind an offensive line that could kindly be called "makeshift." He showed burst and vision unseen in a Buc back since...Ricky Bell, maybe? Now, with a whole ten carries to base the comparison on, he reminds me most of Clinton Portis, at least among active players. I'm excited.

In the backup quarterback arena, Chris Simms went 5-10 for 85 yards, no TDs, no picks. For this, he was praised. I'll admit, I'm happy with the yardage, but 5-10 is cause for praise? Does that say more about him, or Jon Gruden?

Meanwhile, Luke McCown went 4-7 for 38 yards and a tipped ball interception. Not his best game, but still lightyears ahead of where Simms was after 3 months in Tampa.

In other news, Todd France took and made both the team's field goal attempts (46 and 27), and appears to have the kicking job locked up, though Matt Bryant is still on the team after Tuesday cuts.

RIP Nancey McFarland

2005-08-27T13:57:00.000-07:00

RIP Nancey McFarland, who passed away August 16th in Winnsboro, Louisiana. Nancey was the mother of Anthony "Booger" McFarland, starting defensive tackle for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Anthony McFarland missed the Jacksonville game, and is expected to be with the team but not suit up against the Dolphins tonight.

My sympathies are with Anthony and his family.

On The Bubble

2005-08-27T06:44:00.000-07:00

As the hardcores know, this coming Tuesday represents the first "cut" day in the NFL, when teams are required to trim roster spots by fifteen, from 80 to 65. That means that for some players, they must have a boffo game this week if they are going to stick around. Others - probably the guys you won't see much if at all - are already as good as gone. For this reason, the third preseason game always carries a bit more intensity than the first two, and can be a bit melancholy...After all, there are a handful of guys you may see tonight who you will never see again.

QB:
There won't be any roster changes to this position, unless someone gets hurt. Former Florida Atlantic star Jared Allen was cut a couple of weeks ago, leaving only the three guys who will be on the final roster - Brian Griese, Luke McCown, and Chris Simms.

RB/FB:
This is an interesting position, bubble wise. Carnell is obviously off limits. Michael Pittman is expected to be safe, as Gruden loves his versatility, and wants to have a solid backup. Charlie Garner is only still with the team because there is little cap upside to cutting him this season. I wouldn't be shocked to see him go with the last wave, if Gruden is sold on a youngster, but it won't happen Tuesday. Mike Alstott may retire, but that's doubtful at this juncture, and he will not be cut, simply for decorum's sake. The staff likes Jameel Cook, and so do I. That leaves a 4th running back job, and a backup fullback position (maybe) up for grabs. Fullback first. Former Nebraska Cornhusker Steve Kriewald is the guy in the running for the backup fullback job, which will only exist if the team chooses to use Alstott as a situational running back, and not a primary fullback this season. In that case, you'd see Cook as the fullback and Kriewald as the backup. Even so, Kriewald needs to prove the team should bother. I don't expect him to do so - he was a limited player at Nebraska, and he isn't really need on special teams here.

The last running back job is an interesting battle indeed. It comes down to three guys - Earnest Graham, to whom I devoted a post to earlier, unheralded Ian Smart, a second year scatback from football powerhouse CW Post, and Derek Watson, who is the Cecil Collins of his generation. Graham has an edge, I think. He's a local hero, and this is his third training camp with the team, so he knows the offense. He's taken a good number of reps at fullback, so he can fill in there if need be, and he's having (another, see my post) a strong preseason (17 carries, 82 yards, 2 TDs). In any case, if he is cut, It will be an upset if it happens this early in camp. Watson is also having a strong camp (16 carries, 69 yards). If it were a matter of talent, Watson would have been drafted, probably in the first five rounds. Unfortunately, he's a thug. He was kicked off of his college team, by Lou "anything goes" Holtz at South Carolina, and suspended by the division II school he transferred to. He's been in trouble for brawling, cheating, and pot. Luckily for him, Jon Gruden doesn't care. Look for his upside to keep him around. That makes the odd man out Ian Smart. Smart made the most of his only carry with the team last year, scampering for 25 yards. His lack of size and speed probably means the ride ends Tuesday.

WR:
This is THE most interesting spot this preason. The first three jobs are locked up, with Michael Clayton, Joey Galloway, and Ike Hilliard. So is the 4th, barring major coup, with Edell Sheppard. Sheppard was in the fray early in camp, but a strong preseason, combined with familiarity in the offense, means he'll hold down the 4th job. That leaves two spots for a host of guys. Draft picks Larry Brackins (who's just now getting healthy), Parris Warren, and JR Russell, are all safe for the time being, though one will likely be cut or put on the practice squad before all is said and done. That leaves former USF star DeAndrew Rubin, former Saint Derrick Lewis, former camp cut Kevin Youngblood (and earlier in the camp, sensation - they have a short memory this time of year), and Southern University's Chris Davis fighting to, well, fight another day. Rubin is safe, because he may be the answer at punt returner. Any number of the others may meet the axe, but at least one will. I'm betting on Chris Davis and Derrick Lewis, with Youngblood around till next time. Of course, that could change with a strong game by any of them, or an injury.

TE:
The first two jobs are locked, with road grader Anthony Becht and third round tweener Alex Smith in tow. The third job is almost locked up to, with long time Buc Dave Moore expected to also serve as the holder. What does that mean? Essentially, that this is another "buy yourself a little more time" sort of thing. Will Heller and Nate Lawrie both on the bubble - one will likely be cut on Tuesday. My money is on Heller. While he's shown some athleticism in limited duty, Lawrie showed a great deal of improvement this offseason and may have a future at fullback.

OL:
The turk won't knock as hard as he might otherwise, because of the injury bug to this unit. Doug Buckles, Sam Lightbody, newly-aquired Phil Bogle, and Sam Wilder are all on the bubble. A job may open up if Derrick Deese is put on IR or cut outright, which seems like a possibility. Even so, there are only two jobs open. Look for Wilder and Lightbody to hand in their playbooks on Tuesday. Bogle was just acquired and has started in the league before, Buckles was an excellent college player who slipped through the draft.

DL:
There weren't a ton of jobs to begin with. McFarland, Hovan (now that he's playing passably), Rice, Wyms, White, and Spires were all locked in. That's three defensive tackles, and three defensive ends. Josh Savage has played well, and will probably be the fourth defensive end. With the two jobs (tops) that are left, Brian Save, Lynn McGruder, Delbert Cowsette, and Bryant McNeal are in heated competition. McNeal is a former Bronco draft bust, and there is little evidence the light is now on. McGruder lacks NFL size, though he reminds me of former Buc Brad Culpepper. That may save him another week. McNeal will be cut, and so will either Cowsette or Brian Save.

LB:
Jermaine Taylor is as good as gone - he didn't play major college football and is small even by Buc backer standards. Either Matt Gootegoed or Josh Buhl will join him. It'll probably be Buhl. Gootegoed can play middle linebacker, and is a bit more stout at the point of attack than is Josh Buhl, plus he's younger.

DB:
There are a few guys who aren't out of harms way - Blue Adams, for one, and Royell Whitaker. That said, James Patrick, who like Jermaine Taylor is slight and from a small program, is the most likely cut on Tuesday. The lack of depth in the defensive backfield will limit the turk's touch this early in camp.

P/K:
The kicker battle has not yet been decided. I'm sure Gruden wishes it had, so he could devote this spot to another position, but thems the breaks. With camp nearing an end and Josh Bidwell never in real danger, Brian Simnjanovski is dead man walking.

Darrell Russell Suspension Ends!

2005-08-27T04:15:00.000-07:00

When I think back to why I hate Jon Gruden ten years from now (and eight after he's blown town, one way or another), I'll remember two guys: Todd Steussie and Darrell Russell. Steussie, I've talked about at length - he's the 33 year old has been offensive lineman who Gruden gave a larger contract than some upper-echelon, in their prime players had received that offseason. He embodies the ineptitude of the Gruden era when it comes to managing the checkbook.

Darrell Russell made me hate the Gruden era for an entirely different reason.

Darrell Russell was born May 27, 1976, in Pennsacola, Florida. He attended The University of Southern California from 1995 through 1997, departing after his junior year for the NFL draft. The Oakland Raiders, a year before Jon Gruden's arrival, drafted the 6'5, 320 lbs defensive tackle with the second overall pick that year, despite questions about maturity and leadership. Russell had something of a reputation as a man-child then. He was considered the most talented defensive tackle to enter the league since Warren Sapp two years earlier, and his size made him an even better prospect. He could absolutely take over games, as only the greats can. On the other side of things, he was considered difficult by the USC coaching staff, and had been reprimanded and benched at various points during his college career. This, of course, made him the ideal Raider.

Russell enjoyed a solid rookie season on a doomed team - 43 tackles, 3.5 sacks, and an impressive 6 pass deflections. Jon Gruden took over for deposed Art Shell in 1998, and Russell really exploded as a player. In 1998 and 1999, Russell totaled 87 tackles, 19.5 sacks, and 6 pass deflections. He was generally considered to be, along with guys like Sapp, LaRoi Glover of the Saints, and John Randle of the Vikings, to be one of the best defensive tackles in the game. He goes to the Pro Bowl both seasons.

Then things went downhill.

Russell's immaturity, lack of focus, and lack of commitment to improving began overshadowing his talent the next year. Despite playing in 16 games, his play dropped off, to the tune of 33 total tackles and only 3 sacks. These were solid, pedestrian numbers, but much less than he was capable of.

The next season, 2001, he failed his first drug test, on account of extasy in his system, and was suspended four games. Considering he only played in 11 total that year, his 41 tackles and 2.5 sacks could be considered improvement, but the bloom was off the rose, as they say. The following offseason, he was suspended for a second drug violation, this time for possession of the date rape drug, for a year. He would not play in 2002, but that was the least of his problems.

He and two friends - both convicted felons - were arrested and tried for drugging (with GHB - the date rape drug, with which he had previously been arrested in an unrelated incidient) and raping a woman in Los Angeles. The rape was videotaped. The prosecutor was later forced to drop the charges on technicality, despite a belief that Russell was "guilty as hell." A testament to his guilt was the successful civil suit that was later filed by the young woman.

The suspension and the trial didn't monopolize all of Russell's time, though - he did manage to get arrested for drunk driving in August of 2002.

Russell was reinstated midway through 2003, and immediately signed with the floundering Washington Redskins. He makes zero impression on the field - 6 total tackles and no sacks in 6 games. Despite running the loosest, least-discipline oriented team in the league (by a wide-margin), then-coach Steve Spurrier dismissing Russell midseason after mouthing off to coaches and showing up to meetings late, or not at all. This, on what is supposedly Darrell Russell's "second chance." He does not play again in 2003.

Can you guess where I'm going with this? Jon Gruden signs his old friend to a contract prior to training camp in 2004. When questioned about the move, Gruden spouts off about "no conviction" and "good young man" and "second chances (by my count, this is his fourth second chance in the NFL alone)." Russell IMMEDIATELY fails a drug test (within a week of camp opening) and is suspended indefinetly. Indefinetly ended today, according to the Commish.

Gruden, by the way, continues to defend the move on the grounds that there was no salary cap damage done. I wonder if he'll do it again this season?

It reminds me of a joke I heard about Gruden, though I bet it could apply to a lot of coaches:

Gruden walks into his office, and waiting for him are two young men and his head scout. The scout says, "Coach, I you asked me to bring you a couple of young to fill the roster vacancy. I found you these guys. They're both ready to sign with us right now. They grade out as very similar prospects, but there are character differences. Jones here was an academic All American, he does work with his church, and he's a loving husband and father. Smith, on the other hand, was kicked out of school for date rape, he's been in prison four times, and he cursed me out when I introduced myself. Which one of these guys do you want to sign with us ?"

Gruden looks up at the scout and says, "Which one is holding the pen?"

Preview Of The Opening Day Offensive Line

2005-08-27T01:50:00.000-07:00

You can't always get what you want, of course, but under the Jon Gruden "fantasy football" era, getting SOME of what you want is cause for an ewok parade. I wrote in the "training camp preview" that I had a plan for the offensive line. It seems like I may see some of that plan play out. Jon Gruden announced the starting offense line for Miami, and he made it sound as if it might be the unit that takes the field to open things up in Minnesota in two weeks.

The lineup, as he described it, would feature Anthony Davis starting at left tackle. I had rallied for Davis to start. He had been the best offensive lineman in camp last year, and again this year. Last year, he was screwed over as big ticket (in price only) free agents Derrick Deese and Todd "Antichrist" Steussie were handed the starting tackle jobs, and fishing buddy Matt Stinchcomb was handed the open guard job (and played terribly all season). Now, with Derrick Deese dealing with a potentially career ending foot injury - which, by the way, won't prevent him from dancing all the way to the bank - and Todd Steussie's lousiness too great for even Jon "Ask my players about their grandkids" Gruden to ignore - Davis looks to have a stranglehold on the left tackle job. And you know what? He's going to be damn good there, too. Unless, of course, Deese tells Gruden he wants it for himself, in which case, Gruden will give it to him. Gruden doesn't run the Bucs like a meritocracy, he runs them like they run the seniority system at the post office....But that's another post.

So we've got Anthony Davis at left tackle. At left guard, Matt Stinchomb is back. Like I said, you can't always get what you want. The good news is, Gruden's comments give the impression that if Stinchcomb is lousy (and he's coming back from injury, too - bedsores I think), rookie bear Dan Buenning will be given a shot at the job. I think that even if Stinchcomb looks like a turnstyle, as long as he's healthy, he'll have the job. I think he's Gruden's golfing caddy or something, going back to Raider days.

At center is John Wade. I have no problem with that. I'd like to see Sean Mahan given a shot, but it looks like he'll be the next guy we talk about, so that's fine. Besides, Wade is relatively young (29?), rock solid, and has a reasonable contract, so I'm fine with that.

As forshadowed, it looks like Sean Mahan will man the right guard job. Mahan played well last season at center, and the feeling usually is, if you can play center, you can play guard. He's a talented young interior guy, and he could be very good. At worst, he'll still be better than lazy, sloppy, four year starter Cosey Coleman has been recently.

Maybe the only sure thing, Kenyatta Walker will be the right tackle, a position he's manned pretty much since 2002. I love Kenyatta Walker. His first couple of years in the league, he was trash. He came in as a saviour in 2001, and wasn't up to it. He held, he jumped, and he was the worst facemasker in the league. Buccaneer fans nicknamed him "Ken You Walk Us Back" for his limitless infractions. In 2003, he showed subtle signs of improvement. The penalties subsided a bit, especially later in the year. To the point, even though the protection was horrible in 2003, Walker's guy was usually not the first guy to get to Brad Johnson. That's siginificant.

Last year, Walker seemed to finally come into his own. He wasn't a pro bowler, but he wasn't a liability anymore, either. The penalties all but ceased. He had good cames against some very good left ends, guys like Julius Peppers (who plagued him earlier in his career) and Darren Howard. In fact, he was easily the team's best lineman.

So that's the starting five right now - Davis, Stinchcomb, Wade, Mahan, and Walker. My ideal was something like Colmer, Terry, Mahan, Davis, and Walker. Close enough, for now. If Stinchcomb loses his job to either Jeb Terry (when he gets healthy) or Dan Buenning, I'll really be jazzed about this line.

Jaguars 20, Buccaneers 17

2005-08-27T01:06:00.000-07:00

Does anyone even remember a preseason game that happened a week ago?

Oh well.

There were two BIG stories out of this tussle for the Bucs. First, Carnell Williams made is debut for Tampa Bay. This is a bigger story in theory than in practice, as Caddy rushed for 13 yards of 5 carries against the stout Jaguar first team defense. It was amazing the juice he brought to the stands, though. Buc fans roared when he was introduced, they exploded when he "broke off" a five yard gain (his longest of the night), and they even cheered when he got stuffed for a loss of a yard a play later. After not having a reliable, every down, franchise type back since Eric Rhett was in town, around 1993, Buc fans have been starved for a guy like this - a legit 1,500 yard, 12 TD type runner. The old joke used to be, "If only Warrick Dunn and Mike Alsott had a kid..." Well, Caddy is more Warrick than Mike, but he does punish tacklers like Alstott did, and unlike Dunn (5'8 180), he's just big enough (5'11 210) to carry the load. It looked like there were a couple of carries in the game where he was a decent block away from a big gain. With this line, those blocks may be missing all year, and that has to temper your enthusiasm for the kid a bit.

The second BIG story out of this game involves the quarterbacks. Not Brian Griese. Griese is the starter, and he's done nothing to jeopardize that this preseason. He's been throwing underneath, taking what the defense gives him, etc. Pretty much, if you've seen one Brian Griese drive, you've seen them all. No, the story here is the introduction of a backup battle to the preseason mix.

Everyone pretty much assumed that Chris Simms and his three years in the offense would handle the backup job, with newly acquired Luke McCown the emergency guy. That's hasn't quite been the case. At all. But I'm getting ahead of myself. First, some backstory.

I HATE Chris Simms. I resented having to hear about him when he was a high schooler in North Jersey. When he went to Texas, he was more or less handed reps - and then the job - despite the fact that Major Applewhite gave the Horns a better chance to win. He looked like a gangly high school kid at a fantasy camp for Texas. He found ways to lose. He saved his worst for big games. Only the presence of future NFL first rounders like Cedric Benson, Roy Williams, Mike Williams (the tackle), and others made him look halfway decent, and even that was sporadic.

Ever since it became apparent that his pedigree, ideal size, arm strength, and visible school would lead to the NFL (since perhaps his sophomore year), I had been telling anyone who would listen that I didn't want the kid to be a Buccaneer, and I was comforted by the fact that there was only a 1 in 32 chance of that happening, anyway. Well, in 2003, the kid free-fell in the draft. A projected first rounder, the book on him was similar to what I've described thusfar, and in the NFL, only the truly arrogant think they can fix a kid who has no pocket sense, heart, vision, or leadership, no matter who talented they are. Unfortunately, the truly arrogant resides in Tampa, and Jon Gruden, who failed to succeed with Simms's soul sister, Rob Johnson, took Simms with the last pick on day one.

Simms had a redshirt 2003 season in Tampa, though the impression Gruden tried to give the fans was different from the impression the scribes gave us regarding Simms in practice. Gruden said Simms was progressing nicely, and even hinted toward a Daunte Culpepper like leap in Simms's sophomore season (Culpepper also redshirted his rookie year). The scribes said that Simms looked like a gangly teenageer teenager in fantasy camp, and that all you needed were goofy slide-whistle sound effects when he played, and you'd have an "America's Funniest Home Video" prize winner.

Anyway, despite being ineffect in 2003 (game managers shoule never throw 26 interceptions, ever), Brad Johnson was handed the job to start 2004, with Simms the presumptive backup and Brian Griese , alkie journeyman, the 3rd string reclamation project. Johnson looked like a beaten man the first few games of the season. His arm - never known for it's zip - had succumbed to old age, and was no longer of NFL strength. In came Simms, in the middle of a game against the Seattle Seahawks, to jump start the offense. What does he do? Mostly, he runs around like a headless chicken, and fumbles inside the ten yard line. With the game still in reach (thanks to the defense - Simms hasn't led a TD drive, natch), Simms gets the ball with time on the clock for the old two minute drill. First, he throws an interception right a defender (with no receiver in sight), and it's dropped. Then, he throws an interception right at a defender (with no receiver within 5 yards), and it's picked off, but wiped out by a roughing penalty on the Seahawks. Then, on the third consecutive snap, he throws an interception (with literally on receiver on the widescreen TV), and that one sticks. Game over.

He opens up the next week, against the Saints, and is doing the same things - running around like a dumb puppy with a tennis ball in it's mouth, and overthrowing people by 15 yards. Thankfully, Saints defensive end Charles Grant sacks him during one of these chicken dances, and knocks him out of the game. In comes Brian Griese, who once injured himself getting drunk and falling over his dog when he was in Denver. Seriously. He plays well enough - accurate, careful, etc - to hang onto the job the remainder of the season.

I could talk about Griese some more, and maybe at a later date I will, but not now. This is about Chris Simms. Thankfully, we did have another fun Chris Simms game appearance, one that left a sour taste for the entire offseason!

It was claimed by Gruden that Brian Griese had hurt his shoulder before the meaningless week 17 tussle in Arizona, but there is reason to believe that Gruden just wanted to give Simms some PT, so that he could better evaluate the quarterback situation during the offseason. As a Simms hater, I'm glad he did. Against the flat, lousy Cardinals, Simms DID engineer the team's first TD drive in upwards of the seven quarters Simms played last season. Well, maybe "engineer" in the wrong terms. Simms threw a four yard hook pattern to superstud Michael Clayton. Clayton broke the tackle, and deked out three defenders on his way to a 75 yard TD run, 71 of it after the catch. It was the highlight of the season, but alas, it was not the moment that Buc fans would remember from the game. With the team trailing 12-7 and time on the clock, Simms again took the reigns, and again threw an incomprehensibe interception, again with no receiver within 15 yards (no exaggeration) of the defender who picked it off. Game over. Season over.

Brad Johnson was, of course, let go in the offseason. He signed a deal to be the backup to the aformentioned Culpepper in Minnesota. Good for him, I wish him the best, except week one when we play the Vikes. That left a big hole on the roster, with only Griese and Simms on the roster. Griese was resigned to a potentially lucrative, low risk deal, to be our starter next season. Essentially, if he lights it up, he'll get a commitment financially and otherwise from the team to be the man for the next few years (he's only 30 or so). If he stinks, he can be cut at little cap penalty, and another avenue will be explored next offseason. Simms, on the last year of his rookie deal, again is the presumptive backup. That left a hole at #3.

The first blush of free agency came and went in March, with nobody brought in. The feeling was that Gruden would find the #3 guy in the draft. That turned out to be partially true. On day two of draft weekend, Gruden dealt a 6th rounder to the Cleveland Browns for a kid named Luke McCown.

Luke McCown, formerly of Louisiana Tech (Terry Bradshaw's Alma Mater), is an intruiging player. Drafted in 2004, in the 4th round, by the Browns, he has all the measurables - 6'3, 212, and speed. He also displayed the grit and heart Simms lacked in college. As a rookie, he was thrown to the wolves with the Brownies. His numbers - 48 of 98 (49%), for 608 yards, 4 TDs, 7 INTS - are terrible if viewed in a vacuum, but when one considers that a) he was a rookie, b) he was playing for a terrible, lame duck coach, c) he had ZERO help on the offense at any unit, and d) the Browns were a better team with him playing than they were with former All Pro Jeff Garcia or veteran Kelly Holcomb, they really aren't all that bad. I'd take them over the 42 of 73 (57.5 %), 467 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs Simms put up after two years in the offense and much more talent to work with.

McCown became expendable when Romeo Crennell took over as the coach in Cleveland, essentially because Crennell wanted to start fresh with the position. The Browns gave him up for less than market value to free up the roster spot, and the Bucs were the beneficiaries.

Entering training camp, to refresh, Griese was the unquestioned starter, Simms was "locked in" as the backup, and McCown was the long term project with upside. Instead McCown clearly outplayed Simms in camp, to the point where you'd easily mistake who new guy was and who the guy who'd been in the system for 3 years was. This trend continued into the first preseason game, with Simms throwing underneath for 8-11, 54 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, and McCown throwing for 9-13 for 48 yards. Similar numbers, until you consider that Simms was playing with the first and second team offense, and McCown was playing with the 3rd string and the "doomed."

The relevance to this game is the widening of the gap even further. Against the Jags, Simms threw 6-10 for 51 yards, with all the completions coming underneath, and the team not moving. McCown threw 10-16, for an impressive 131 yards, with 1 TD and 1 INT, and the team scored eleven points.

Jon Gruden does not badmouth his players. The worst you'll ever hear is "he needs to work on..." or "we're a little disappointed with how..." or "he should be at the point..." etc. And we've heard it all since the Jacksonville game regarding Simms, while McCown's praises have been sung. If the season started on Sunday, chances are either McCown would come in if Griese were hurt, or Simms would come in and be given a VERY short leash...

I, for one, will be very interested to see how the two look against the Dolphins tonight...

My Apologies For The Lapse In Posting...

2005-08-26T23:55:00.000-07:00

Sorry it's been so long since you've heard from me, sports fans. I've been sick, my wife has been sicker, and work has been one curveball after another. I'm back on track now, so to all my fan (singular), worry not, the nightmare is over.

Todd Steussie Is Back

2005-08-13T02:12:00.000-07:00

Like a certain character in the Stephen King novel "Dreamcatcher" is prone to saying, "F--- Me Freddy!"

Yeah, I get "injuries" and I get "slim pickins," but would it be so hard to find a depth vet who a) can still play football, b) doesn't represent everything that's wrong with the front office, and c) may actually improve, even a BIT, in time? I guess so. Insult to injury, man. Insult to injury. It's like we're being mocked.

The Earnest Graham Thing

2005-08-13T02:03:00.002-07:00

BUCS 20 TITANS 17 (OT)

First, about the game. I didn't see it. The public was mercifully spared from watching the 5th strings of two of the worst teams in the galaxy play on a muggy evening. From what I've read, the high points for Tampa included the quarterback play - Simms went 8 of 11, for 54 yards, with a TD pass to Earnest Graham and a touchdown pass to Keith Bulluck (aka an interception). Pretty much what you'd expect from Simms - he threw underneath, padding the completion percentage but not really moving the ball, and he made one potentially game costing bonehead play that WILL cost us a game in the regular season. So, like last year (SO like last year).

But I was talking about good things.

Luke McCown, the 2nd year loose cannon, threw 9-13 for 48 yards. Also the cheap underneath stuff, but you know what? He's been in this offense 4 months, Chris Simms has been here 3 years already! It's more impressive from McCown than Simms.

Other bright spots - both of our battling kickers made their kicks - one FG each. That's a good sign. Derek Watson, who would be in the "Q" by now if not for his football skills, ran for 63 yards. The third down offense was an impressive 7 for 16, and the defense allowed an amazing 3 of 17! That makes sense, considering the nearly five minute TOP edge enjoyed by the team.

Best news yet, the team was only penalized four times! That's a GREAT sign and a great number for the first preseason game of the year! Heck, that's midseason form!

On to the real star of the show.

Earnest Graham scored both of the Buccaneers touchdowns, one on a bruising ten yard run, the other on a nifty five yard pass reception. In addition, he rushed ten times for 62 yards.

This scenario - Earnest Graham playing lights-out in August - is familiar to Buccaneer fans. This is the third straight year he's done this. Although preseason stats are impossible to find, I'd estimate he's scored nearly a touchdown a game the last two preseasons. If there was such a thing as preseason fantasy football, Earnest Graham would be on the cover of publications.

So why does he always get cut before the season starts?

I mean, what's the point? The guy can't play much better than he does during auditions, but never, ever gets a part! Why not give the playing time to someone who MIGHT find a spot on the active roster? What good does this do the team? What good does this do Earnest, for that matter?

A bit of background about Mr. Graham: he attended the University of Florida, putting up numbers rivaling (and sometimes surpassing) luminaries Emmitt Smith and Fred Taylor. He drew comparisons to Smith - compact, powerful, gritty, though he lacked many of the other things which made Smith great - vision and burst, to name two. He went undrafted in 2003, and signed an UFA contract with the Buccaneers. By all accounts, he did well in camp, and as noted, he was a beast in the preseason, providing power running in short yardage situations.

He met the turk on the final cutdown day, and didn't play for anyone in 2003.

In 2004, Graham again got a call from Jon Gruden's Buccaneers. Again, he excelled in preseason, carrying the workload despite a conversion to fullback (allegedly to help his chances making the team). Despite a loaded backfield - Michael Pittman, Charlie Garner, Brandon Bennett, Jamel White, Mike Alstott, Jameel Cook, etc - Graham is the best preseason player by a wide margin.

Again, he is cut. But this time, he gets picked up midseason after a rash injuries, contributing 13 carries for 73 yards, 3 kick returns for 52 yards, and a special teams tackle.

Now, he is back again, and he opens things up with two touchdowns. You have to wonder if he thinks it will make a difference in the end.

Buccaneer Fan NFL Predictions 2006: Part II - NFC South

2005-08-08T04:24:00.000-07:00

For the first of my division by division breakdowns, I naturally chose the division of my beloved Buccaneers. The NFC South has existed as such since 2002. That year, of course, the Buccaneers went to and won the Superbowl, and the Atlanta Falcons made the divisional round of the playoffs. In 2003, the Carolina Panthers played in the Superbowl. Last season, the Falcons made it to the NFC Championship game. In other words, the division has a strong track record in the post realignment era.

This year, I expect more of the same. The Falcons, if healthy (that is, if Vick is healthy), should only be better, which is a feat after a 12-4 year. The Panthers were ravaged by injuries last year but could be the best team in the division if healthy. Yet again, the Saints have the talent for a playoff run that conventional wisdom tells us they will find a way not to make. Finally, though my Bucs are clearly in "rebuilding" mode, seven wins is not out of the question.

1. Carolina Panthers (10-6)

Overview:
I think the Panthers will actually be better than that record, but this division will be a war of attrition. The caveat is that they must stay healthy, as their depth is lacking on a few units.

The Coach:
As you can see from my coach rankings, I think the world of John Fox. The Panthers will show up every week, and they will play inspired football. They will knock any team foolish enough to show up flat, well, flat. Getting to seven wins was an amazing feat in a lost year - many other coaches would not have been able to keep the troops focused after a 1-7 start.

The Offense:
Expect to see a frustrating blend of power running and well timed play action passing. Between Deshaun Foster, Eric Shelton, Stephen Davis, and the rest, the Panthers have the physical runners and the line to open holes for them. Jake Delhomme is a perfect fit for them. He'll find the open man and take advantage when the defense invariable brings up the eighth man to stop the run. Losing Mushin Muhammed WILL hurt, but a returning Steve Smith is a fair trade, and will give the offense another dimension.

The Defense:
The Panthers may have the best front seven in football. Expect to see a wide variety of looks, but mostly, expect to see a one gap scheme where the excellent front four (Pepper, Rucker, Buckner, Jenkins) gets heat and the speedy linebackers (led by Dan Morgan) clean up the mess. The secondary, with the addition of Ken Lucas from the Seahawks and the maturation of Chris Gamble, will be better, so look for more blitzing.

Offensive MVP: Jordan Gross
Gross, the Panthers tackle (right, then left, now right again, so we hear), is not only near invincible in pass protection, but a keen eye will notice that the ground game will be at it's most successful when it runs behind him. It doens't much matter who the Panthers plug in to carry the ball - Gross will make them all look good.

Defensive MVP: Julius Peppers
I try to avoid the obvious choice, but a no-brainer is a no-brainer. Peppers is the Michael Vick of defensive players, and his continued development and improving upper body strength could mean the first of many defensive POY awards.

Rookie of the Year: Eric Shelton
Deshaun Foster has health and ball control issues. Stephen Davis is ailing. Someone named Nick Goings got serious carries last season. Long story short, Shelton will get his opportunity, and when he does, he will hold onto it. Even the worst case will probably involve more reps than most rookies will see.

When They Win, It Will Be Because:
If a team (like my Bucs) has trouble stopping the power run, the Panthers are almost invincible. Very rarely will they win a game when they aren't running well, so that will be the biggest thing to look for as a precursor to success. Also, if Rucker or Peppers can tee off on the passer, comebacks can become impossible to mount.

When They Lose, It Will Be Because:
On the other hand, if a team has the bulk in the middle to contain the power running game, Delhomme is forced to win games with his arm, which is not when the Panthers are at their best. Also, many of the key defenders are injury prone, so a superhuman defense can sometimes become mortal.

Bottom Line:
After surviving last year's trainwreck, even a little bit of health and luck will be enough for this group to make the playoffs and mount a run when they get there.

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7)

Overview:
I said at the start that the Falcons could be even better if they (Vick) stays healthy. If you watch him play, you find it hard to fathom that he can start 16 games two years in a row. Hence the lowered expectations. One could take issue with making a prediction based up an injury that hasn't occured, but since injuries WILL occur, and we know they will, banking on an obvious one seems reasonable.

The Coach:
Jim Mora (Jr.) did a bang up job as a rookie, going 12-4 and winning a playoff game. He has surrounded himself with talented assistants and has worked with Rich McKay towards filling his roster with players who fit what he wants to do. He does the most unusual of things as a head coach - he is both a player's coach and a disciplinarian. Even if Vick does get injured, one cannot predict the debacle that occured the last time that happen, in 2003 under Dan Reeves.

The Offense:
Mora has worked dilligently to install a traditional west coast timing attack in Atlanta. While Vick made strides last season, he still has a way to go until it will work as designed. Vick does not look towards his wide receivers very often, and when he does, he has trouble hitting them. Look for a lot of passes to emerging tight end Alge Crumpler as well as swings and dumpoffs to Warrick Dunn, who will again be one half of the Falcon runningback duo. The other half will be powerful TJ Duckett, who seems to only be scratching the surface of his potential. The line is nondescript but effective, and most importantly, they are athletic enough to follow Vick has he worms his way through the backfield.

The Defense:
Mora has installed a defense similar to the Tampa Two. The defensive line, led by amazingly quick Rod Coleman, get pressure, while the back seven play a lot of zone. With DeAngelo Hall getting up to speed, look for more blitzes from Keith Brooking this season. The defense, not Vick and the offense, will be needed to carry the Falcons oftentimes this season.

Offensive MVP: Michael Vick
If healthy, of course. If he's on the field, it's almost humorous to imagine anyone else being capable of being the offensive MVP for this team.

Defensive MVP: Ed Hartwell
The newly acquired Hartwell gives the Falcons a thumper in the middle of the defense. He should improve the Atlanta run D in the same manner that the return of Jeremiah Trotter improved the Philadelphia run stopping. He didn't get his due playing next to Ray Lewis in Baltimore, but he will shine now that he has the spotlight. Simply put, he will be worth five pegs to the rush defense, which was a weakness next year, as these things go.

Rookie of the Year: Jonathan Babineaux
With Ed Jasper departed, the spot next to Rod Coleman is wide open. Babineaux, a second rounder from Iowa, is very, very, similar to Coleman and could be the opening day starter next to him. At the least, he should provide an occasionally explosive pass rush as a wave tackle, or perhaps end.

When They Win, It Will Be Because:
There are two Vicks - the guy who makes some teams look silly with his incredible athleticism and speed and who can complete passes within the system, and the other guy (see below). The first kind of Michael Vick will more often than not mean victory. On defense, penetration by the front four is the biggest difference between playing well and getting the ball run down their throats.

When They Lose, It Will Be Because:
There is another Vick - a guy who gets frustrated when defenses contain his scrambles and couldn't hit the ocean were he standing on the bottom. When this guy is taking snaps, it takes a great deal for the Falcons offense to be productive enough to win games. Also, as was mentioned, the defense can be run on by power teams.

Bottom Line:
I think Vick will miss a few games, at least, this season, and I think the Panthers are a better team if healthy. Throw in division attrition, and you have an eight to ten win ballclub.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)

Overview:
Most national talking heads pick the team to finish last. I'm going with third, but that's less homerism and more "I have no faith in the Saints" syndrome rearing it's head. Following a snakebitten Superbowl defense in 2003 and a horrible, veteran laden last gasp in 2004, this team is in full on rebuilding mode.

The Coach:
For the first time in his career, fans are questioning Jon Gruden's divinity. Unlike the previous two coaches discussed, Gruden's troops have played flat, uninspired, roadkill football the last couple of years. While his Xs and Os are without peer, it doesn't look like this team knows how to win anymore. Because of the turnover, this is a gift year for him. But unless there is improvement by the end of 2006, this will be the last.

The Offense:
Jon Gruden teams are fun to watch. The best word to describe what you'll see is "exotic." You'll see three halfbacks in the game at once. You'll see fullbacks split out wide and flankers line up at fullback. It looks as if there are some playmakers to drive it home as well. Wideout Mike Clayton is a gamer and should be the focal point of the passing game, while rookie runner Carnell Williams is expected to breathe life into a stagnant running game. Accurate but inconsistent Brian Griese will be getting them the ball. If the offensive line doesn't play better, none of that will matter, and even more shifting and motion will be needed to obscure the inability to line up and play.

The Defense:
Death, taxes, and the cover two. Expect to see the same thing you've been seeing since 1996. The front four will be expected to get pressure, and future Hall of Fame linebacker Derrick Brooks will make tackles all over the field. With inexperienced safeties and little depth at corner, expect to see the deep ball more often than in prior years.

Offensive MVP: Anthony Becht
An odd choice, even by my standards. The offensive line was terrible last year, and Becht will be worth two to three tenths of a yard a carry over the course of the season. Additionally, Jon Gruden will get the most out of this behemoth in the passing game, and should exploit elements of the game not seen since college.

Defensive MVP: Derrick Brooks
Another year, another great year for #55. He is slipping, don't let any homer tell you otherwise. But he is still the focal point of a great defense and one of the best at what he does. He will be the defensive MVP until proven otherwise.

Rookie of the Year: Carnell Williams
More often than not, the first rounder won't be the most valuable rookie, and I try to reflect that. In this case, the 5th overall pick is the smart money. The team is desperate for an A-list runner, and Carnell is polished, explosive, and ready to contribute right away. He is already the most talented natural runner to wear the team colors.

When They Win It Will Be Because:
This is still a strong defense, but they have off days. An "on" day, when the quarterback is being pressured into mistakes and the back can't get out of first gear, is the biggest thing to look for in a win. The offense is at it's best when there are enough cylanders firing to keep balance. Finally, the kicking game has cost many games the last two years, and it must be at least average for consistent victory.

When They Lose It Will Be Because:
The defense is very vulnerable to the power running game - hence the four losses in the last for contests with the above mentioned Panthers. A power back, having an "on" day, combined with a quarterback who can throw through the zone, is deadly against the Bucs. Otherwise, turnovers and poor kicking are the usual signs of doom.

Bottom Line:
Fans expecting to see anything more than promise this year will be disappointed. The Bucs will only stay out of last place because I predict a total meltdown for the Saints, which is long overdue.

4. New Orleans Saints (4-12)

Overview:
The Saints are one of the NFL's token "enigma" squads. Each year, they bring back the same core group of guys - and a talented group at that - and each year, they play .500 ball before another uneventful offseason. Why the fall this year? Because in the NFL, you're either moving forward or you're getting left behind. This team lacks the depth of those middling squads, and both the coach and the quarterback will be fighting for their lives. The rub is, neither seems to be very clutch under pressure.

The Coach:
I rated Jim Haslett has the worst coach in the NFL, and I mean that. Maybe it isn't fair, because it isn't as if the Saints have been terrible. The thing is, they have talent that many NFL coaches would easily have deep into the playoffs by now. Unless Haslett can manage that this year, he will be gone.

The Offense:
The Saints run a tweaked west coast style. With the explosiveness of Deuce McAllister running the ball, and the speed of their talented receivers, they have no qualms about playing the longball either. This is partially what makes them dangerous, and partially what makes them vulnerable, as quarterback Aaron Brooks is known to turn the ball over. Rumor has it they are going to focus on the run more this season.

The Defense:
The Saints defense revolves around their superb defensive ends. Sadly (for them), the defense tackles can be run on and the back seven is mediocre. The Saints rarely blitz, instead, they try to keep the ball in front of them and minimize mistakes that lead to big plays.

Offensive MVP: Deuce McAllister
McAllister was out of shape last season, and it showed. He renewed his commitment to conditioning this offseason. He will be expected to be the focal point of the offense and the franchise this season, and he has all the skills to carry the load.

Defensive MVP: Will Smith
Smith, right now the "third man" in the 3 man defensive end rotation including Charles Grant and Darren Howard, has Simeon like quickness and explosiveness, and better size. He could be the best pass rusher in black and gold since Pat Swilling. Double digit sacks and a few forced fumbles are a given.

Rookie Of The Year: Alfred Fincher
Fincher was underrated going into the draft for playing at UConn and not having prototype size, but he can make plays all over the field, and he plays a position of major need for the team. If he cracks the lineup, he'll be there for keeps.

When They Win It Will Be Because:
The Saints can score points in bunches. If Aaron Brooks is having an accurate day and McAllister is running with authority, the offense will score enough to offset the lack of defense. The team's health is also key, as they don't have a ton of depth across the board.

When They Lose It Will Be Because:
Simply put, inconsistent offense and porous defense is not a good combination. When Brooks is flustered, he turns the ball over. McAllister sometimes runs tenatively, and can hit the wall. The offensive line has trouble with speed rushers and that's a bad combination with Brooks's penchant for fumbling. As indicated, the defense is simply not very good, especially the linebackers.

Bottom Line:
This is put up or shut up time for Haslett and Brooks. I predict the 2nd one. This team has too many holes, too little depth, and is too inconsistent to win very many games in the improving NFC.

Ranking The Quarterbacks

2005-08-04T23:22:00.000-07:00

Second verse, same as the first. I just completed a top to bottom of the head coaches in the league, and now I'm doing the same for the quarterbacks. Why? Because I can (and I don't get off for another three hours, besides).

THE TOP TIER

1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts.
He broke the Dan Marino's TD record last year. He's perhaps the most dedicated student of the game in the game. Maybe ever. He never, ever gets hurt. He doesn't make mistakes. He's a leader, and a winner. His numbers are obscene. He can make every throw, and he almost always chooses the right one to make. He's not a runner, but otherwise, he's the most complete quarterback ever to play the game. If he didn't have the misfortune of running into a New England defense that apparently can't be beaten, he might have two rings by now. I'd be shocked if he doesn't get at least one. Of course, he might just have to wait for it, a la Elway. But that shouldn't take anything away from him. Simply the best ever.

2. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles.
I had Tom Brady's name here but I erased it. Why? Because Tom Brady is a vital part to a great team, but Donovan McNabb would be great no matter where he played. I'm not saying Brady wouldn't be, I'm just saying there's more reason to believe that McNabb would be. He's a leader, that's first off. He's developed a great understanding for the nuances of the game. He does his homework. He's always had a cannon arm, and he's worked hard to improve his accuracy. He can take over a game and just as easily manage a game. He's the face of the team and the city, and he deserves to be. He is an absolute franchise quarterback.

3. Tom Brady, New England Patriots.
Let's be real about this - Tom Brady is a game manager. He's the greatest game manager ever, but he's still a cog, not an engine. He's the most accurate passer playing today. He doesn't make mistakes. He doesn't seem to have any concept of pressure, in terms of the situation. He has great awareness and pocket sense. He's the quarterback that every offensive mastermind wants, because he will make your system work. That said, if he has to throw the ball fifty times a game, something is wrong, and at that point the odds of the Patriots winning decreases. That isn't necessarily true for the two guys ahead of him, which is why they are ahead of him. You'd rather see Tom Brady throw 15 times than 50, and not just because of the "come from behind" element of throwing a lot. You'd rather see it because he'd look better that way.

A (SLIGHT) NOTCH BELOW

4. Michael Vick, Atlanta Falcons.
I'm sure my Buccaneer friends would H-A-T-E this, but what can I say? No quarterback in the league as dramatically increases his team's chances of winning than does Vick. He is never going to be a 4,000 yard, 30 TD, 64% passer, as Jim Mora would have you believe. What he will do, however, is make enough plays that nobody else could make in a season for his team to win a handful of games that they wouldn't win if anybody else were in there instead. That's a big, big deal.

5. Daunte Culpepper, Minnesota Vikings.
It pains me to put Culpepper this high, because I don't think he should be the 5th best quarterback in the game. Yeah, I know he's put up guady numbers and wins a decent amount of games, but you watch this guy play, and too often you don't see it. He makes a lot of mistakes. He fumbles far too much. He makes poor reads. He also benefits from a great system and a great supporting cast. Okay, enough of that. The guy IS a beast. He has a superhuman arm. He's built like a defensive end and he runs like a tailback. By all accounts, he's a solid leader and a nice guy. I just wonder if he'd be anywhere near the same guy throwing to, I dunno, Justin Gage in Chicago and being asked to manage a game.

6. Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers.
He's not the guy he was by a longshot. The arm has dimished, the mistakes have remained. He is still the scariest quarterback to be facing any given week. Last year, the Packers would have finished with four wins if ANYBODY else is behind center. He's the epitome of "gives them a chance to win every week." If the Packers don't have a top five draft pick next year, it will be because of Brett Favre and Brett Favre alone.

ROCK SOLID

7. Trent Green, Kansas City Chiefs.
There isn't an overflow of love for Trent Green. Maybe it's because of his modest pedigree, or because he didn't become a star until so late in his career. In any case, he deserves more respect. Kansas City has had an elite offense behind him, and he's been surprisingly durable. I see him as a poor man's Peyton Manning, and unlike Manning, he's done everything with totally unspectacular receivers at his disposal.

8. Steve McNair, Tennessee Titans.
McNair came back to give it one last (?) go, but you have to wonder why with this team. Anyway, McNair deserves to be mentioned among the best of his generation. He has a superbowl appearance and an MVP. He's a team leader and an icon for the franchise. Although he's not the scrambler he once was, he is still one of the better running quarterbacks in the league, and his arm has long been underrated. He's a guy you're happy to go to battle with.

9. Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers.
As a Buccaneer fan, he gives me fits. He doesn't really ever make mistakes. His reads are spot on, and his throws are there, even with a defender in his grill. He isn't a great athlete and he doesn't have the best arm, but there is no better fit in football between a player, a coach, and a scheme. Some might say this is too high, but they probably haven't seen him play very much.

10. Carson Palmer, Cincinatti Bengals.
The light went on late last season, early than many expected. Palmer is the complete package. He knows how to win. He has an elite arm and his reads are way ahead of the curve for a guy his age. He has the weapons in Cinci and the trust of his coach. He could crack the top five this season, as long as he doesn't regress and his supporting cast stays healthy. I wasn't sure when he was drafted, because I'm leary of this new generation of PAC 10 guru-fortified quarterbacks. Palmer, however, appears to be in position to succeed big.

11. Chad Pennington, New York Jets.
As Pennington goes, so goes the Jets. He has deadly accuracy, and only Peyton Manning is a better student of the game. He fits Herm Edwards's west coast scheme perfectly, and when he's healthy (he takes quite a few hits because of pedestrian mobility), he keeps drives moving as only a few quarterbacks can. He may not be the "sexiest" quarterback for New York, but he's the best Jet signal caller since Broadway Joe.

12. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks.
The biggest knock on Hasselbeck is his lack of wins with a talented team. Since the light went on a few years ago, he's been what so many had hoped for - a poor man's Brett Favre for Mike Holmgren. He isn't a scramber but like Favre, he is sometimes at his best on the move. He is accurate and gritty, and he throws a catchable pass. A cure for the drops that have plagued his receivers, particularily Darrell Russell, will go a long way. He's in limbo until the Seahawks make a playoff run.

MIDDLE OF THE PACK

13. Drew Brees, San Diego Chargers.
It's this simple - if the light is on, and last year is going to be the norm, he's as top seven or so quarterback. If last year was a fluke, he'll be off this list next year because Phillip Rivers will be the starter. This is the happy medium. I've always liked Brees, going back to the Big Ten. He doesn't do anything exceptionally but he does everything well. He's the kind of guy, in this age of "quarterbacks as role players" that you can see hoisting the Lombardi someday. That is, if last year wasn't a fluke.

14. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers.
Let me go on record as saying he might be the most overhyped 2nd year player in NFL history. He's a game manager, not a game changer, at least not yet. He was given a top running game, an elite receiving corp, a great offensive line, and a shut down defense, and told not to mess it up. To his credit, he didn't mess it up, and many rookies would have. I think, however, you put 7 out of 10 day one rookie quarterbacks in his position, and you'll get nearly the same result. I watched him at Miami (Ohio), and he does have the talent to match the hype, but as of right now, everyone needs to calm down.

15. Byron Leftwich, Jacksonville Jaguars.
He gets the nod over David Carr simply because there is a bit less doubt about what Leftwich is capable of at this point. He hasn't had a ton to work with so far, but he has all the makings of a star. He might have the best arm in football right now, and he has already established himself as a leader. He needs some help, but that might be on the way this season. By this time next year, he may have attained "franchise" status, but in the meantime, he will continue to grow and the Jags will grow with him. The biggest concern, at this point, is his release, which can be timed on a sundial. Until that improves, he may have a lower ceiling than he should.

16. David Carr, Houston Texans.
I didn't think he was worth the #1 overall pick in 2002, and I'm still not sure. If either Michael Vick or Drew Henson had been in that draft (both were a possibility), he would not have been that guy. In any case, Carr has shown toughness, leadership, and improvement and the backbone of the expansion Texans. He has been hampered by a general lack of talent, especially up front, so it's difficult to get a read on him at this point. He COULD be that guy, but it remains to be seen if it will all come together for him.

SLIGHTLY BELOW MIDDLE OF THE PACK

17. Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams.
I don't think Bulger is anything special. More to the point, I think if you stuck Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Harvard grad the team drafted in the last round this year, in the lineup, the dropoff wouldn't be all that shocking. Bulger throws too many picks, but that could be the system. His accuracy is improving and he throws a nice deep ball, though he usually has some space to work with because his great receivers are adept at seperating. Not to put too fine a point on it, but just as I think Fitzpatrick would succeed in St. Louis, I think Bulger would be exposed if he had to play for anyone else.

18. Aaron Brooks, New Orleans Saints.
How does it go? An enigma wrapped in a riddle and surrounded by a mystery? Something like that. Anyway, Brooks has all the tools. There is nothing physically that Donovan McNabb does that Brooks couldn't do. The thing is, he's been knocked for a lack of leadership, and his team doesn't seem to always play for him. He also makes far too many bad choices, considering the playmakers around him. This is as much a make or break year for him as it is for his coach. Their fates are probably intertwined.

19. Jake Plummer, Denver Broncos.
Plummer is a lot of fun to watch, but he plays out of control too often. His "make a play at any cost" mentality was helpful when he was surrounded by Frank Sanders and Adrian Murrell in Arizona, but he has playmakers here, and he hurts his time by sometimes playing sandlot ball. There is almost no excuse for an eight year vet throwing 20 picks in a season. His arm is below average, but his mobility makes up for it. I imagine he must be very frustrating to root for in Denver.

20. Brian Griese, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Brian Griese, the man Plummer replaced, is frustrating for different reasons. He's deadly accurate and he has the potential to be an elite "cog" guy for the right system, and that may very well be Tampa. The problem is, while he doesn't throw many picks, it seems as if the picks he DOES throw are of the horible, game costing variety. There have also been some pointed questions about his leadership, or lack thereof. He's a fine quarterback with a good arm and a sound mind, but at this point, you have to wonder if he's ever going to be a "winner" like some of the goes he plays like (Jake Delhomme, for example).

NOT SO MUCH THIS SEASON

21. Kerry Collins, Oakland Raiders.
Did this guy ever luck out? Collins is the rare player who's status has run the gammit from overrated to underrated, and back to overrated. He has a cannon arm and throws a beaut of a deep ball, but he doesn't make plays consistently and at this point in his career, is a liablity against the rush. He's fortunate enough to have both the best receiving group in the NFL to throw to, and a system which fits him perfectly. Expect him to deliver the numbers, though mostly what will happen is he will become even more "overrated" because of all that.

22. Drew Bledsoe, Dallas Cowboys.
Bledsoe has been a shell of a player the last two years. The hope is that a reunion with the coach he went to the Superbowl with will make the difference, but I'm dubious. He looks like he's hit a wall. He's started freezing against the rush and his arm may have lost just enough at this point that he can no longer hide his shortcomings with it. The best chance he has in Dallas is if the guys around him make plays and he doesn't throw more than 30 times a week. He could be effective another couple of years that way. Otherwise? I think there are backups who can do more than he can at this point (Drew Henson being one of them, but don't tell Parcells that).

23. Kyle Boller, Baltimore Ravens.
Boller took a lot of flack after being thrown into the fire the last couple of years, with minimal help around him. There are some playmakers there now, but people who think he's going to tear up the league are mistaken. It's going to take this group a year to gel, even under the "best case scenario." The truth also is that Boller is somewhat limited. He's just the kind of new age Pac 10 type I said earlier I don't have much faith in. He's NOT Akili Smith, but he isn't Carson Palmer, either - not by a mile.The saving grace here is that with Jamal Lewis and that defense, he won't be asked to do very much at all.

24. Eli Manning, New York Giants.
I think Eli will be a fine NFL quarterback. He has everything he needs to succeed, physically and mentally. I expect him to be maybe 3/4ths of his brother, which will still be franchise quality. All that said, he won't be that guy next year. Next year, he'll be a virtual rookie who will make more mistakes than all his positives will make up for, and he will hold the Giants back from potential playoff spot. Look at for 2006 or 2007, though.

25. Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears.
Grossman is a mystery man, having ended up on IR both of his first two seasons. He's got the talent, and he's got the "it" you may here about. He's not physically imposing, but if he can stay on the field, he could be the best Bears signal caller since the "punky QB." Of course, he could also be another University of Florida washout, or he could end up on IR again. I like him, as you can tell, but I'm playing the odds.

26. Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals.
Remember what I said about the St. Louis Rams making guys looks good? Exhibit A. I don't know if that's all there is to it, or if it's the concussions, or the age, but he is, as of today, a game manager who turns the ball over too often. He's in the ideal position to succeed. Denny Green has made a career of bringing quarterbacks back from the dead, and he has talent around him. I don't think he has the body to cash those checks at his point in his career. Best case scenario - he stays out of the way of a talented young offense.

BOTTOM RUNG OF THE LADDER

27. Patrick Ramsey, Washington Redskins.
I like Patrick Ramsey. I think he's gotten a royally raw deal with the Skins. First, he had to play in Spurrier's "Chuck and Duck." He shows growth and toughness behind nonexistant pass blocking. Then, Joe Gibbs doesn't give him a chance at the job, handing it to washed up Mark Brunell like an honorary Oscar. Brunell can't deliver, so Ramsey comes in and play reasonably well. Then, the Redskins trade up in the draft to take Auburn's Jason Campbell, who is immediately considered the guy of the future. All this before the kid is 27. I hope he pulls a Drew Brees and makes them all look silly this year. Unfortunately, with a lack of playmakers at receiver and a scheme that just doesn't seem to work, plus zero faith from the front office, I doubt it will happen. He has a great arm and great toughness, and I think he will be a good NFL starter, but not in 2005, and not in Washington. He deserves better anyway.

28. J.P. Losman, Buffalo Bills.
From one Tulane QB to the guy that succeeded him. Losman has the tools to be an elite - not good, but elite - NFL signal caller. But he will essentially be a rookie next year, and you have to wonder how his massive ego will handle the abuse his rookie like play will (unfairly, mostly) bring him. I'm hoping for his sake that he makes enough spectacular plays with his strong deep ball and his Steve McNair like mobility to keep the call in show nation quiet following those rookie moments.

29. Gus Ferotte, Miami Dolphins.
First, let me say I do think he will win the job. I also think he will put up reasonable, unimpressive, but not disasterous numbers doing so. But he's a caretaker, and this team is in transition. His knowledge of offensive coordinator Scott Linehan's system will go a long way, but he is a textbook case of "great backup, prepare for the draft if he's your starter."

30. Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers.
His football acumen and intelligence means he will be better than most rookies. His lack of supporting cast means the numbers may not reflect that. The Niners and their fans should simple treat any success he has this year as a bonus. It shouldn't be a problem, because even Golden Joe couldn't wring too much success out of this group, especially with a new scheme to be digested. I like Smith's smarts, and his mobility, and his positive attitude, and I expect him to be in the top ten by 2007.

31. Trent Dilfer, Cleveland Browns.
I loathed him when he was with us, but he's a different guy now. The thing is, he hasn't been a regular starter in several years, so I don't really know who that guy is. He used to be a cannon armed dunce who grew into a reasonable acceptable game manager in winning a Super Bowl with the Ravens. Now? He'll be shaking rust off of a package that wasn't that great at it's best, and he'll be doing so with little around him. Fear the worst.

32. Joey Harrington, Detroit Lions.
See earlier comments about coached up, PAC10 types. I though he'd be better than David Carr coming out of college, but I wasn't in love with either of them. He plays scared. He always throws as if he's about to get smacked, even when there's no heat on him at all. Wasting all the talent he has around him should be a crime.

Ranking The Coaches

2005-08-04T03:00:00.000-07:00

There are two kinds of posts you'll see on my blog (that is, if you see my blog). The first are driven by the news of the day. Obviously, if something noteworthy happens in the Buccaneer Universe, I'll write about it. I plan on having recaps of all regular and preseason games, as well as a plethora of offseason whathaveyou. At the moment, training camp is in swing, and unless someone gets hurt there is little to write about. For one thing, coaches are more and more guarded about depth chart info these days. For another, Coach For Life Jon Gruden determines his depth chart the same way voters determine victors - name value is 3/4ths the battle. In other words, you won't often see a nameless rookie or a journeyman vet beat out a "name" guy, even if the name guy gets beaten like a drum in camp.

Anyway, the point brings us to the OTHER kind of thing I post, which is less about a burning need to post it, and more about the need to not fall asleep at work. This is a great example of such a post. I'm going to rank the current head coaches, top to bottom, with explanations. I wouldn't call this "filler," because I am giving this a great deal of thought and effort and research, but needless to say I'm not doing anything that hasn't been done already.

So, after that great build up, I give you...

Buccaneer Fan's NFL Head Coach Rankings!
(Note - first time coaches are exempted. First year coaches (who have coached other teams) are included and rankings are based on past success. It would be much fairer to only include guys who've been at their job three plus years or so, but it wouldn't kill any time that way!)

TOP TIER

1. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots.
In other news, the French military is not feared worldwide and gas prices are a bit high at the moment.

Belichick has won three of four Superbowls after taking over a stagnant New England team several years ago. What makes that even more impressive, as if that's necessary, is that the Pats win games so many different ways. One week, you'll see a power running team. The next, a spread offense. The next, a west coast look. You'll see a blitzed crazed 3-4 and a patient Tampa Two. You'll see them put up 35 and allow 34, and you'll see them win 10-3. That's great coaching. Most coaches will try to win by making the other team play their game, the Pats will let you do your thing and do it better. Heck, look at the three teams they've beaten for their rings - the offensive juggernaut Rams, the ultimate ball control ground pounding Panthers, and the uber-talented McNabb centric West Coast Eagles.

I could go on and on, but there's no need. Belichick is the greatest in the game today, and maybe ever.

2. Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles.
...Which brings us to the man Belichick beat in the last Superbowl. Andy Reid has established a mini-dynasty in the NFC East. In an era where back to back division crowns are rare, the Eagles have won the division soundly four times in a row, and unless the team plane crashes, they should win another this year around the time the turkey is carved. They've been to the playoffs five straight years, and have been to the NFC Championship game three times in that span. That's incredible. The Eagles are balanced, deep, well coach coached, well managed, and tough. They draft well, and they show rare restraint in free agency. Despite their success over the last five years, they are still a young team and they still have cap room to burn. All that begins with Andy Reid. It was not an easy road for him. He was called too green when he got the job, as he was only a quarterback coach with the Packers at the time. He was called all kinds of things for passing up Ricky Williams for Donovan McNabb in the NFL draft in 2000. He was called too conservative for not lavishing money on free agents like Mark Brunell.

Turns out, he knew what he was doing, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't get at least one ring out of this group for it.

A STEP BELOW

3. John Fox, Carolina Panthers.
Ahhh, the first "what the hell is he thinking" moment of the post. How could I pass up guys like Parcells and Gibbs and Cowher for John Fox? He of one playoff appearance in three whole season on the job? Well, it was easy. The Panthers, and more to the point, what John Fox has done with them, provides a model for how to build a team. He took over a 1-15 group in 2002. Not only that, an OLD 1-15 group, with little direction. First, and most important, he knew what he wanted to do. He decided to build around offensive linemen who knocked guys on their asses, and guys who ran the ball hard behind them. He want recievers who could move the chains and a quarterback who wouldn't make mistakes with it. As for his defense, he built around a line that could dominate games and linebackers with sideline to sideline speed.

While getting to the Superbowl in his 2nd year was impressive, winning seven games in a season lost to injury the following year was more impressive. He got great efforts every week from a team with no reason to care. The Panthers are just going to do what they do. They exemplify football, and unless half their starters are on the shelf, they are the toughest out in football. As a Buccaneer fan, I'd rather play the 12-4 Falcons any day.

4. Bill Cowher, Pittsburgh Steelers.
I admire Cowher for many of the same reason I admire John Fox. He knows what he wants to do. His team responds to him. They know their jobs and they show up every week. He's been getting that from his guys for over a decade now. The faces chance - from Neil O' Donnell to Kordell to Roethlisberger, from Barry Foster to Duce, from Greg Lloyd and Kevin Greene to Joey Porter and Jason Gildon, etc, but the results don't vary and neither does the way the Steelers play. You know their running game is going to punch you in the mouth, and you know those four huge linebackers are going to occupy your quarterback's mind all day. While Cowher has yet to get his ring, a Superbowl appearance and a handful of Championship games over the years are enough to illustrate his success.

5. Jeff Fisher, Tennessee Titans.
Fisher is getting knocked down a peg by some because of the sorry state of his team these days. That isn't fair. Fisher kept his team competitive pretty much every season after his leadership took hold. He molded Steve McNair from a Division II quarterback to an NFL MVP. He went to a Superbowl and came within a yard of beating a much more talented group. Heck, he's probably the reason we didn't see a Jacksonville Jaguars dynasty in the late 1990s. He won with a scheme dubbed too conservative and a defense that has been rebuilt on the fly several times. It will be at least a couple years until his Titans are contenders again, but they will be, and Fisher will deserve a large part of the credit.

6. Bill Parcells, Dallas Cowboys.
Most would have Parcells higher, perhaps under only his former pupil. I think Belichick's successes with New England knock Parcells down a peg, especially after last year's debacle. In any case, he is a fantastic and storied coach. He won two rings with the New York Giants in the midst of the 49er dynasty. More than that, he has an amazing track record for rebuilding projects. With both the Jets and Patriots, and to a lesser extent the Cowboys, he took over rudderless franchises and molded them into Superbowl contenders within two years. In the modern NFL. that's not as amazing as it once was (sans Free Agency), but it is still remarkable. Besides Belichick, there is perhaps no coach that most fans would like to see running the show for their beloved teams. What better nod to greatness can there be?

7. Brian Billick, Baltimore Ravens.
Billick gets the nod over Dungy and Denny Green by virtue of his ring. Billick took over the Ravens with a rep as an offensive guru. Well, any fan can tell you the Ravens are not about their offense. Recognizing that the strength of his team would be on the other side of the ball, Billick went against his instincts and built a conservative, "don't mess it up" style offense to compliment Ray Lewis and Co. on the other side of the ball. He did it so well that they won a Superbowl in 2000, and have remained generally competitive since. Those 2000 Ravens might have had the best defense ever (that, as I say, is another thread), while their offensive might have been the most pedestrian ever to hoist the trophy. Any coach who can win a ring in such a manner - going against his strengths as a coach - deserves a nod.

8. Tony Dungy, Indianapolis Colts.
Tony Dungy the man is not a devisive figure. He's an exemplary human being. Tony Dungy the coach, or more specifically, the opinions regarding Tony Dungy the coach, are much more varied. In a bizzaro universe Brian Billick scenario, he came to Indy with a rep for the D, and found himself saddled with Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Edgerrin James, and one of the best offenses in football. Like Billick, he's gone against his strengths and won games with what he has. Although he doesn't have the ring, his numerous playoff appearances and two Championship games are an indicator of his success. If he does capture the ring, he will get the recognition he deserves as a coach as well as a man.

9. Dennis Green, Arizona Cardinals.
Remember what I said about taking a guy's prior head coaching into consideration? This is a great example. Although he hasn't had the time to do his thing with the Cardinals yet (but he will - soon), his track record in Minnesota speaks for itself. His Vikings teams were always a handful, regardless of the quarterback. You could pretty much pencil the Vikings in for a minimum of ten wins and a playoff appearance during his tenure. His teams were always prepared, and seldom made mental errors. After two boffo drafts in Arizona, he may be on the verge of doing the same thing in the desert, which would leave him just two miracles shy of sainthood.

MIDDLE OF THE ROAD

10. Joe Gibbs, Washington Redskins.
Gibbs is clearly the most difficult guy to peg in these crude rankings. Winning 1...2...3 Superbowls should be enough to lock him into the top five, maybe the top three. And yet, here he is, and nobody is really sure if he can do his thing in this era of free agency, uber-complicated schemes, and prima donna superdogs. He looked lost last season, but nobody knows if a) the game has passed him by, b) he just needed a year to get his bearings or c) it doesn't matter either way because of his meddling, Napoleonic owner. We will hopefully know more in a year. Even an IMPROVED, "well, he still knows what he's doing" year will be worth five pegs. Another "leather helmet" kinda year will be similarily costly,.

11. Herm Edwards, New York Jets.
Maybe I'm parital (not that I'm a Jets fan), but I can't think of a coach I'd rather play for (were I taller than 5'9, that is). Although his Jets teams are inconsistent, they are passionate and they play hard. They are not as far off as people seem to think, and if they make their kicks, they're in the AFC Championship game last season and they give the Pats a better game than the Steelers did. Edwards has a team that reflects himelf - focused, energetic, and professional. As I said for Parcells, there are few coaches I'd rather see running the helm of my team, and that's a big part of the bottom line.

12. Jim Mora, Atlanta Falcons.
Early indications are that he will end up much higher on this list before all is said and done, but one year is still one year. What a year it was, though. Mora pulls off the impossible balancing act of being both beloved by his players and tough on them as nails. He has installed solid schemes on both sides of the ball and more importantly, he has a good idea what he needs from his players to make those schemes work on the field. His legacy will be tied to his talented but "throwing challenged" quarterback, Mike Vick. If he can accomplish his goal of making Vick a 60% complete passer, this team has the look of a potential perennial powerhouse to it. I would be shocked if the Falcons suffer their usual post-success relapse next year.

13. Mike Shanahan, Denver Broncos.
Too low for two rings? A couple years ago, I would have agreed, but the more time passes, the more it looks like Shanny needed Elway more than Elway needed Shanny. The Denver Broncos are darn near always going to be in the playoff hunt with him at the helm. They run the ball very well, and he coaches the west coast scheme as well as anyone. Until he wins a playoff game post-#7, however, he can't climb much higher than this. Maybe it's unfair to punish him for having one of the great quarterbacks of all time at his disposal earlier on, but by the same token their have to be questions about if he would have made it this long otherwise.

14. Mike Holmgren, Seattle Seahawks.
Another Superbowl winner who probably deserves better but has only hurt himself in recent years. Heck, another Superbowl winner who needed his great quarterback more than the quarterback needed him. Holmgren coached one of the great teams in memory - the 1996 Packers - to the ultimate prize. During his seven years in Seattle, however, the results have been mediocre. The talent appears to be there, but his trademark offenses have been inconsistent and his defenses have generally been mediocre. The Seahawks appear to be in neutral. Until they take another step (and by now, you wonder what it will take for that happen, besides another coach), he can't be any higher. When you write, direct, and star in the movie, you take the heat for lousy box office.

15. Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I promise to keep this as brief as possible. Gruden did win a ring, and Buccaneer Nation will always be thankful. That said, the last few years - the more and more he puts his stamp on the franchise - things have been getting worse and worse. The team is penalty-ridden. They look bored. They make mental mistakes. Inferior players are getting playing time based on past results. They don't seem to care half the time. There's no hunger. Had Gruden not won a ring, he'd be on the hot seat by now for all that. As it is, he probably has one, maybe two, post Superbowl gift years left. His offense genius - and that it is - can score points, and the defense he inherited can prevent them, but somehow that doesn't seem to be the same as winning games. Unless this team starts showing up on Sundays again, there will be as more "Switzer" references than the boy genius would like in regards to his time in Tampa.

16. Marvin Lewis, Cincinatti Bengals.
This would be too high for a guy with a resume consisting of two .500 seasons in row, that is, if he weren't the head coach of the Bengals. As it is, they may have a top 3 offense next year and there's hope for his defense. There should be, as he made his name as the defensive coordinator for those 2000 Ravens. The team in the Queen City is a dark horse Superbowl contender. What more needs to be said at this point?

17. Mike Sherman, Green Bay Packers.
Maybe I'm disrespecting the guy. Probably I am. He's made the playoffs every year save one as a head coach. He salvaged a 1-4 team left for dead last season. His Packer teams are always a tough out. Then again, how much love can there be for a guy who was within inches of the unemployment line last offseason? Despite having personnel control (until this offseason) and a track record, he still strikes me as an enigma as a coach. How much would not having Brett Favre change the results? Heck, how much would it change his style of offense? Does he know there's also a defense to be looked after? With their third defensive coordinator in three years, you have to wonder if he knows what he's doing on that side of the ball, and with his staff in general.

18. Marty Schottenheimer, San Diego Chargers.
His lack of playoff success knocks him down a few pegs (like ten!), but I love Marty. He's done a great job in some difficult situations. He had the sense to realize his tried but true "run run run...run run run run" style wasn't getting it done with the Chargers, and he opened it up last year, to great success. His teams are always professional, and he has little tolerance for nonsense. Folks would be shocked to learn his coaching record is a remarkable 177-117-1. If it turns out his Chargers weren't a fluke last season (let me spoil it for you - they weren't), and he makes a run in the playoffs, he will get his due.

19. Dick Vermeil, Kansas City Chiefs.
He made the classic mistake - he could have retired on top, but didn't. He knows offense, as his all time great Rams and always explosive Chiefs attest. At the same time, his Kansas City team appears to be in neutral, and with an old offense, the window has either closed already, or his defense better come together NOW if he wants another chance to go out on top. In the meantime, he's a great coach, but lightning rarely strikes the same coach twice, especially in two different cities.

20. Tom Coughlin, New York Giants.
Tom Coughlin is a controversial fellow. He's been known to fine players for showing up to meetings EARLY, and for wearing the wrong color socks on the team plane. He presided over one of the great expansion "coming of age" stories in Jacksonville, before he wore out the last nerve of the city. Now, in New York, much of his story will be written by the strong right arm of Eli Manning. His methods are questionable, his coaching record is exemplary, but if he's going to take the next step in New York, Manning had better be the real deal.

21. Dom Capers, Houston Texans.
This is the second expansion team that Capers has helmed. The first, the Carolina Panthers, were as successful as Tom Coughlin's aforementioned Jags, at least in the short term. You know what you get with Capers. He likes a physical, balanced offense and a 3-4, zone blitz of a defense. It looks like the defnese is there. The offense needs to take the next step for the team to reach the playoffs for the first time. In the meantime, Capers seems to be on track in Houston, as the team has improved it's win total every season since inception in 2002.

22. Steve Mariucci, Detroit Lions.
I firmly believe that if any one of about 30 different quarterbacks had started for the Lions last season, they'd have been a playoff team. Joey Harrington is the granite wall between Mooch and the success he deserves. He's a boffo coach, really he is. His Niners were always good, except when they weren't, which is when he oversaw one of the most impressive rebuilding periods in NFL history. In Motown, the talent is there, but for him to get the credit he deserves, Joey Harrington either needs to take the step or Mooch's beloved Jeff Garcia needs to start. If either of those things happen, the Lions win that division and make a playoff run. Otherwise, Mooch is unfairly resigned to the middle of the pack. After all, keeping Harrington in the lineup is his call.

23. Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears.
Smith is saying and doing all the right things. He already has a defense that fits what he like to do - it's small, fast, and mean. After a horrible year offensively last season, which was not all his fault, he spent a lot of time, energy, and cap space to upgrade. Until some signs of an NFL offense emerge in Chicago, he can't be much higher than he is here, simply because his teams will not win. But his defense will be fun to watch, and that's something.

24. Mike Mularkey, Buffalo Bills.
The jury is out. A great deal of his story will depend on his success with the raw but talented J.P. Losman. Mularkey is an offensive guy, and a quarterback guy. He's most famous for being the guy who made Kordell Stewart look like an NFL quarterback for awhile. The defense was ranked #2 in the NFL last year, and while they were in over their heads, it's a strong unit. The pieces are there on offense, so it's up to Mularkey to do something about it this season.

BOTTOM RUNG

25. Norv Turner, Oakland Raiders.
"Norv Turner" should become slang for "A Great Coordinator Who Should Not Be The Head Coach." His teams in Washington usually had good offenses and usually underacheived noticably. His team in Oakland this year will, again, have a good (maybe great) offense and not sniff the playoffs. He has not shown any ability in many opportunities to take a team to the next level. His mindset (huck 'er deep) fits with that of owner Al Davis, or Turner likely would not be an NFL head coach right now.

26. Mike Tice, Minnesota Vikings.
He has the semi-affectionate nickname of "meathead" in some circles. He seems to overlook details. His teams don't seem to maximize their talent the way a great coach ensures his team will. They look often to be playing street ball, which is fine to a point, but Tice often ignores various players and aspects of his offense. They take too many penalties and play too flat at times. With the talent he has on hand, many coaches would have a 12 win team. With Tice, they've underachieved royally. This year's edition should be the best yet, so anything less than a division crown and a couple playoff wins could spell the end.

27. Mike Martz, St. Louis Rams.
Martz is at best half a coach, as he seems only vaguely aware of defense and special teams. At worse, he's a quarter of a coach, as he is unaware of those things AND a running game. His offenses are explosive. His talented running backs have been known to fall asleep in the backfield waiting for carries. His special teams, especially coverage units, are usually among the worst in the NFL. His defenses are embarrasing. If his ego allowed it, he would be much better off as a coordinator again. Maybe he'll prove me wrong this year and put it together. But if he does, he'll have to coach both sides of the ball and feed Steven Jackson and Marshall Faulk. I'll believe it when I see it.

28. Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars.
This guy did not have a resume that merited a head coaching job. He's energetic and charasmatic, and that's worth something, but after a year as a somewhat successful defensive coordinator for the Panthers, he should not have been given the Captain's Chair. The Jags have been water cooler fodder the last couple of years, for things like having an axe in the locker room as a motivation tool (which led to a major injury, natch) and for his laughably optomistic characterizations of his player's injuries. Hugh Douglas late and again of the Eagles, spent one year in Jacksonville and called Del Rio something along the lines of "the worst coach he'd ever played for on any level." And this guy played for Rich Kotite.

29. Jim Haslett, New Orleans Saints.
Sooo, year in, and year out, the Saints have had top tier talent to work with - Aaron Brooks, Joe Horn, Ricky Williams, Deuce McAllister, and a great line, plus a defense with some talent. Year in and year out, for four years now, the Saints have been a middling, .500 or so team that hasn't shown up to play far too often. For some reason, that hasn't come back on Haslett yet. The talent is again this year among the NFL's best, so if the Saints aren't playing after the college bowl season has ended, expect Haslett to be unemployed.

Dude, Where's My Caddy?

2005-07-29T13:47:00.000-07:00

Ah, training camp. And double "Ah," it's the thing that makes training camp, well, training camp - the top pick holdout. This year's it's Carnell "Cadillac" Williams, the running back from Auburn we took with the fifth overall pick in April's draft. Well, while any holdout is bad news, this is an opportunity to play "good news/bad news" with the situation, as it could be worse.

The GOOD news is he's a running back, and no position needs less camp reps to be prepared to contribute. While there are nuances to be gleaned, for the most part, a guy either knows how to run a football or he doesn't. That's the main reason that while quarterbacks and receivers rarely register a blip the rookie season, running backs are often at their BEST early on, before the wear and tear takes it's toll.

Additionally, this doesn't look like it's going to be one of those situations where the "I" word is used (impasse, for the people playing at home). The lines are open as they say, and it looks like Caddy's people are waiting for Ronnie Brown and the Dolphins, and possibly Cedric Benson and the Bears, to come to terms and "set the market."

Which brings us to the BAD.

Ronnie Brown very well could be at an impasse with the Fins. Nick Saban really seems to be without sense of humor regarding negotiations. Ricky Williams is back, which gives the team leverage, and Lamar Gordon, the incumbent, isn't half bad, which is MORE leverage.

Worse yet, Cedric Benson, who is also a runner, was taken one pick ahead of Caddy and very well could be at an impasse. Convential wisdom would be that once Ronnie Brown signs, Benson's people will use that as a baseline for their negotiations with the Bears, and once HE signs, we will use that as a baseline for OUR negotiations. Like I say, the market needs to be set.

Sadly, it sounds like Benson's people and the Bears are in a pissing contest, so even if Ronnie Brown does sign, that might not be enough for Benson and Chitown to come together on a deal. I'm not sure who here is being unreasonable, but again, the Bears have a decent option in Thomas Jones, which means they could afford an extended holdout. Which means for us, the market will not be set.

Also planted squarely in the BAD is that the deck was stacked against Caddy getting the playing time his talent deserves this season in the first place. Jon Gruden does not like rookies, and he has two backs who can play in incumbent Michael "Looks Like Tarzan Plays Like Jane" Pittman and Charlie "Ask Me About My Grandchildren" Garner. Chances are that even if Caddy had reported on time, he would be splitting carries with those two despite the given that he will outplay them in camp. Getting Gruden to play the youngsters, even the ones who deserve it, is an uphill climb. Throw in that Caddy will be behind the curve, and there will probably be times that despite being the best option at his position, he'll be featured on milk cartons in Tampa during the season at times.

Todd Stuessie Released

2005-07-29T01:17:00.000-07:00

It's about damn time, that's all I have to say.

Stuessie embodies everything that's wrong with the Gruden era...But I'm getting ahead of myself. First a little background is called for.

Todd Stuessie was a standout left tackle for the Cal Bears in the early 1990s. In 1994, he was drafted in the first round by Dennis Green and the Minnesota Vikings. He was a fixture at left tackle through the 1990s. He didn't miss a game his entire time there, which last from 1994 through 2000. He even may have made a couple of Pro Bowls. If he didn't, he could have.

Following the 2000 season, he was released, both because of salary cap issues the team was dealing with, and because his play was clearly in decline. The Carolina Panthers, fresh off of having the worst offensive line in football (their quarterback at the time, Steve Beurlein, had been sacked something like sixty times that year), signed Stuessie to a large but not ridiculous contract. He was in Carolina from 2001 until 2003. In 2001, his play was still solid. By 2002, he had begun to become a liability, as his declining quickness and mobility started to limit his ability to wall off speedier defensive ends. In 2003, there were no two ways about it - the guy had become a major problem for the team on passing plays, as he was not only getting beaten, but getting beaten badly. The Panthers often had to scheme around this, using quick drops for their passes and using the tight end to help Stuessie out.

Following the 2003 season, the Panthers cut Stuessie, despite not really having anyone ready to take the spot. Here's where it gets interesting. Stuessie's play had been in decline for at least five seasons. He was a liability against the pass and no better than average against the run. He was 34 years old. Convential wisdom would have been him either a) retiring outright or b) getting a vet minimum deal (around $800K) sometime in training camp, after injuries had struck and teams were desperate.

Instead, Jon Gruden, who runs this team as if he were playing Madden on the Xbox, signs Stuessie the day after he's released, and gives him $4 million dollar SIGNING BONUS! Essentially, Gruden gave him more money in 2004 than did the Panthers when they signed him in 2000! Worse yet, there was no evidence anyone else was bargaining for his services, so suffice to say he could have been had for much less money!

Adding insult to injury, despite the fact that by many accounts Stuessie was not the best option at his position (based on camp and preseason evaluations), he is given the opening day start anyway. The team moved him to right tackle, where it's felt his deficiencies in pass blocking can be better disguised. It doesn't work. Stuessie's play is atrocious, and after five starts Jon Gruden has no choice but to bench him for Kenyatta Walker, who Stuessie was supposedly signed to replace. Walker ends up having the best season of his career thusfar.

So now, Todd Stuessie is a former Buc, and if Jon Gruden and company aren't embarrased, they should be. But don't worry sports fans, Stuessie will be just fine. We gave him $4 mil last year, and he keeps that no matter what.

Ten Things I'd Love To See In Camp

2005-07-27T03:46:00.000-07:00

On the eve of Buccaneer Camp, Circa 2K5, here are ten things I'd like to see happen before our first preseason game:

I. I'd like to see Chris Hovan display enough of his late 1990s form to earn a starting job. I have no idea if he's up to that or not, but his ability to wreck havoc (or not) is the difference between having a first or second tier defense IMHO. Discouraging is that according to reports, he's on a "short leash" with the team, and if he does not at least show flashes of that ability in camp, he will be cut quickly. I don't really understand that. It isn't as if a) he's a team cancer type, b) there are huge cap benefits for doing so (he's on a one year vet min deal), or c) our depth is so great that even a mediocre Chris Hovan can't help. Right now, oft-injured Anthony McFarland is the rock, and he's surrounded by promising but unproven Ellis Wyms, Damian Gregory, Anthony Bryant, and possibly converted DE Dewayne White. There's a lot of potential in that group (along with unheralded types Lynn Magruder from Oklahoma and All-NFL Europe Brian Save), but a veteran with a track record is just that.

II. I'd love to see Brian Griese take Chris Simms behind the woodshed in the quarterback competition. Admittedly, Griese's already been given the job, but I want to either see him be the franchise guy we need OR I want to use what should be a high draft pick next year on the position. By making Chris Simms look like the NFL Fantasy Camp reject that he is, one or both of those goals will be furthered. The worst possible scenario is the opposite happening, and Simms looking like the better option. All that can mean, IMHO, is a wasted year at the most important position in sports. If it turns out, nine months from now - draft time - that Griese was not the answer, I'd love to see Bowling Green's Omar Jacobs in pewter and red, but that is another thread (I'm a poet and I didn't know it).

III. I'd love to see Michael Clayton's added weight (about 20 lbs of muscle) equal a more complete receiver. The natural fear is that he'd lose explosiveness, but I see the opposite occuring. After all, he's now got nearly the same build as a Terrell Owens, and Owens's strength is a big part of what makes him so dangerous. Clayton is never going to be a burner, but he could very well be a guy that's very difficult to stop at the point of contact or slow down at the line. Also, he's now almost as big as an H-back, so I expect to see him plow some holes on the perimeter for the running game. Good stuff.

IV. I'd love to see Will Allen beat out Dexter Jackson for the free safety job. Jackson is a smart player who still has some good seasons left, but this is a youth movement, and Will Allen has a ton of upside. He was one of the key cogs on Ohio State's title team, and he has all the measurables you'd like in a free safety. All he needs is the opportunity to play. I hope he wins that opportunity is camp. He's talented enough to put an end to the revolving door that has been our free safety spot for better than a decade. We'll always have some great memories with Jackson, but he's a limited player and he's probabably just starting to head down the hill. To put it bluntly, a few mistakes from a developing free safety this season will not be the difference between the Lombardi or not.

V. My ideal scenario for the offensive line is this: Todd Stuessie and Matt Stinchcomb can leave right now. NOW. N-O-W. Actually, I'd rather they had left at 12:01 July 1st, but NOW will suffice. Stuessie and his astounding contract represent the blackest eye on this administration. Stinchcomb was has bad as an offensive lineman can be and still start sixteen games. I consider those two packing up a no-brainer. The IDEAL scenario would involve two more cuts - Derrick Deese and John Wade. Deese played better than he was given credit for last season, and he's still a solid pass protector (which is important with the not too Vick-like Brian Griese under center). The thing is, he's 35 years old and this is his 15th year in the NFL, and once again, this is a rebuilding effort. The variable here is if we can replace him (more in a second about that). If we can replace him without turning Griese's blindside protection into a sieve, then we should. John Wade, our center the past couple years, is still solid, and I would not be upset to retain him. That said, if he can be replaced by a younger, cheaper guy (again, more next paragraph), then that too would be consistent with the rebuilding motif.

That's three starters I'd like to see cut (Todd Stuessie was benched midseason for the guy he was supposed to supplant, Kenyatta Walker). Another, five year starting right guard Cosey Coleman, signed with the Browns in free agency. Despite all those starts, he was an underachiever who never played up to his massive potential after being a 2nd round pick in 2000 out of a National Champion Vols program.

The aforementioned Kenyatta Walker makes the most sense at right tackle. He's still young (26) and on a rookie deal. He had been written off as a bust earlier, but it seemed that the light finally came on last year. He should be a given at that spot.

At left tackle, I'd like to see rookie Chris Colmer, a third round pick out of NC State, win the job. I realize starting a rookie at left tackle is rare, but it does happen. Forget not that the Patriots started converted guard Matt Light at left tackle as a rookie not long ago, and he played well. Colmer is not your average rookie. For one thing, he's 24 years old, after taking a season off for medical reasons. He was a three year starter in a passing offense and his protection made it possible for Phillip Rivers to be the psuedo top pick in 2004. He has excellent size for a left tackle (6'5 310) in terms of mobility and pass protection. He's a smart kid, and he plays with a mean streak. He'll make his mistakes, but so will Deese, and unlike Deese, Colmer will learn from his.

Left guard was the position manned so poorly by Matt Stinchcomb last year. It would literally be impossible to throw one of the other candidates the job and have him play worse. There was some sentiment that Jeb Terry won the job outright as a rookie last season and wasn't given it simply due to Gruden's well documented mistrust of rookies. Well, there are no excuses this year. Like Colmer, he was an excellent pass protector in college (at rival North Carolina). He's also built the same (6'5 311) and has similar athleticism and mobility. There are rumblings in the organization that he's going to be very good. Let's find out sooner, rather than later. Heck, it isn't as if he's going to be worse than Stinchcomb.

Center was manned solidily by John Wade the last couple of years until he got hurt. Sean Mahan, a third year player from Notre Dame, stepped in and there was no drop off to be seen. Although Wade would make sense as a starter from a depth perspective (Mahan can also play guard), I think that when you are rebuilding, if you can get the same level of play from a guy four years younger and a good deal cheaper, you should embrace those opportunities. That's what teams that successful rebuild will do.

To replace Cosey Coleman, I'd consider Anthony Davis a slam dunk. Unlike the other four guys, he's a mauler, and he's another guy that could have started last year if not for Gruden's veteran fetish. He's athletic enough that he's been talked about as a potential left tackle, and he's a powerful run blocker. I'm excited to see what he can do.

There you have it a line that will be BETTER than last year's, and MUCH better in 2006. Plus, it'd be significantly cheaper. If THAT doesn't do it for you, how about this - 24, 24, 25, 25, 26 - those are the ages, left to right, of those five guys.

VI. Our first three receiver slots are all but locked. Michael Clayton is the offensive centerpiece of this franchise. Joey Galloway, the speedy one trick pony, will be running deep routes (and not much else) on the other side. Former Florida star and New York Giant mainstay Ike Hilliard will be the third receiver, until Galloway hurts himself, and then he'll be the second receiver. There is no mystery or competition here. It's after those three that it gets interesting.

We drafted three receivers in April. In the 5th round, we took a promising but raw Herman Moore type, JUCO star Larry Brackins. Brackins is built like Randy Moss (6'4 205) but didn't play major college ball and is only 22. We also drafted Paris Warren, the favorite target of top pick Alex Smith at Utah, and JR Russell, of Louisville, both in the 7th round. We also have a young holdover in rail-thin Edell Sheppard (6'1 175).

My wish is simple - I want to see ONE of those four show enough that the organization gives him some reps this season and a shot at the starting gig in 2006. That's all. Ideally, it'd be Brackins, because he was much more upside than the other three. Russell and Warren are essentially clones - 6'3 possession types. Brackins could be special, though. I'd love to see him earn the trust of the coaches this camp, and do enough during the season to make a run at starting the next year.

VII. I don't care if it's former Giant Matt Bryant (again, poet), or NFL Europe stud Todd France - I just want a kicker who doesn't suck. I'd like to see one of those two do enough in camp that the organization and the fanbase can feel the slightest confidence in the position entering the season.

VIII. I haven't mentioned his name yet, which now that I think about it is shocking, but a lot of this camp is going to be about top pick Carnell Williams. I want him to get through camp healthy, and I'd like him to quell this jones Jon Gruden has for splitting carries. He's the best option, and he needs the ball. I want him to do enough in camp that Gruden has no choice but to make him a 300 carry man this year. A large part of that will be blocking and catching, but I'm not worried about it. This kid is every bit the player of the last three runners picked 5th overall in the draft. Maybe you've heard of them - LaDanian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, and Edgerrin James.

IX. Greg Spires had a career year last year - eight sacks and general strong play against the run - and was resigned for it. Not bad at all for a scrap heap pickup a few years ago. That said, I want to see former second rounder Dewayne White make good on his promise and take the starting job. It seemed like White was on the precipice of a breakout last year, and this year the only thing stopping him will be himself. His tools are far superior to Spireses, and he no longer has inexperience as an excuse. This is his year.

X. I'd just like to get through camp healthy.

Buccaneer Fan NFL Predictions 2006: Part I - Overview

2005-07-27T00:19:00.000-07:00

First, a note on format - this first installment will cover my blunt predictions for the following season - playoff teams, playoff results, and award winners. In subsequent editions, I'll go into more detail, division by division, team by team, regarding predictions and such. I reserve the right to edit up to opening kickoff, as injuries are bound to happen in camp and preseason. Right quick:

AFC Playoff Teams and Seeds:
East - New England Patriots (3)
North - Cincinatti Bengals (2)
South - Houston Texans (4)
West - San Diego Chargers (1)
First Wildcard - Baltimore Ravens (5)
Second Wildcard - New York Jets (6)

Wildcard Round: Patriots Over Jets, Ravens Over Texans
Divisional Round: Chargers Over Ravens, Bengals Over Patriots
AFC Championship: Bengals Over Chargers

NFC Playoff Teams and Seeds:
East - Philadelphia Eagles (2)
North - Minnesota Vikings (1)
South - Carolina Panthers (4)
West - Arizona Cardinals (3)
First Wildcard - St. Louis Rams (5)
Second Wildcard - Detroit Lions (6)

Wildcard Round: Lions Over Cardinals, Panthers Over Rams
Divisional Round: Vikings Over Lions, Eagles Over Panthers
NFC Championship: Eagles Over Vikings

SUPERBOWL XXL: Eagles Over Bengals

Individual Awards:
NFL MVP: Carson Palmer
Offensive POY: LaDanian Tomlinson
Defensive POY: Bertrand Berry
Offensive ROY: Cedric Benson
Defensive ROY: Derrick Johnson
Coach Of The Year: Marvin Lewis
Comeback Player Of The Year: Ricky Williams

The 2005 Offseason: Forward, Backward, Neutral (?)

2005-07-22T06:41:00.000-07:00

(As I write this, we are six days from the opening of training camp, for those who need to know...)

First, the raw information:

Key Veteran Additions (Defined as guys I see making the final cut)
QB Luke McCown (Traded to us by the Browns for a 6th Rounder)
WR Ike Hilliard (Free Agent, formerly of the New York Giants)
TE Anthony Becht (Free Agent, New York Jets)
DT Chris Hovan (Free Agent, Minnesota Vikings)
CB Juran Bolden (Free Agent Jacksonville Jaguars)
PK Matt Bryant (Free Agent, Giants, and likely our kicker this year)

Underwhelming List, No?

Key Veteran Losses (Defined as guys who would have made the final cut)
QB Brad Johnson (Free Agent, now of Minnesota)
WR Tim Brown (Retired, thank God)
WR Joe Jurevicious (Free Agent, Seattle Seahawks)
TE Ken Dilger (Released, homeless at the moment)
DT Chartric Darby (Free Agent, Seattle Seahawks)
CB Mario Edwards (Released, Miami Dolphins)
SS John Howell (Free Agent, Seattle Seahawks)

Addition by subtraction, I'd say.

Still A Decent Chance To Meet The Turk In Camp (IMHO)
OT Todd Stuessie
G Matt Stinchcomb
FB Mike Alstott

RB Charlie Garner

God willing.

Draft Results
1 (5) Carnell "Cadillac" Williams, RB, Auburn
2 (36) Barrett Ruud, LB. Nebraska
3 (71) "The Other" Alex Smith, TE, Stanford
3 (91) Chris Colmer, OT, North Carolina State
4 (107) Dan Buenning, OG, Wisconsin
5 (141) Donte Nicholson, S, Oklahoma
5 (155) Larry Brackins, WR, Buttwipe Community College
6 (178) Anthony Bryant, DT, Alabama
7 (222) Rick Razzano, FB, Ole Miss
7 (225) Paris Warren, WR, Utah
7 (231) Hamza Abdullah, S, Washington State
7 (253) JR Russell, WR, Louisville

Draft Musings
Our top pick, Carnell Williams, is what people like to call a "gamer" or a "throwback." He's small for a tailback, but he hits. The guy he's replacing, Michael Pittman, fell down if a defender farted on him. This kid won't. He's effortless in space and he will knock an ill prepared defender flat if given the opportunity. The big concern is how his injury history (he got banged up at Auburn), his size (5'11 210 or so), and his physical style, will mean to his durability in the NFL. Also, there is a feeling he needs work as a blocker, but his team first attitude at least means he won't miss a block for lack of trying, like so many. His style reminds me some of Walter Payton, not that anyone would make that comparison. They just look similiar with the football...Barrett Ruud really surprised me. I live in Nebraska and have seen him play quite a bit of college ball with the Huskers. Like Williams, he's sort of an old school type. His father, Tom, played linebacker with the Huskers and the Buffalo Bills, and his brother Bo was also a Husker linebacker. The reason the pick surprised me has to do with his style of play. The Buccaneers, ever since the Tony Dungy era, have employed undersized, linebacker/safety tweeners with great speed and coverage skills but below average size and stoutness. Ruud is athletic, but is much more the traditionally NFL 'backer than we usually go for. He should help the run defense whenever he takes the Mike job from aging incumbent Shelton Quarles. I'd compare him to someone like Mike Barrow. Same kinda build. I'll be happy if he's that good in the pros...Alex Smith, the Stanford tight end, was an intriguing pick. Tight end wasn't a spot most fans thought we were targeting following the signing of former Jet Anthony Becht, but the two are night and day in terms of style. Anthony Becht is a run blocker, pure and simple. He's a similar player to guys like Mark Bruener of the Texans, or Kyle Brady, of the Jags. He can make a few plays in the passing game but is much better sealing the edge in the run game. Alex Smith, on the other hand, is one of the new breed of NFL tight ends, which is to say he's an oversized wide receiver. He can get up the field quickly and exploit an opening in the seam. Needless to say, he will need to work on his blocking to be a complete, every down tight end and not a gimmick or a situational player - either that, or we must improve our offensive line...

...To that end, we have our next pick. Chris Colmer is overaged (24 I believe), but comes in with a solid resume. At NC State, he spent his time keeping the blindside of Phillip Rivers clean. He's an excellent pass protector, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he were the opening day starter at left tackle in 2006. He needs some work in the run game, and injuries (he has a rare muscular condition, I believe) are a concern, but he is as polished as any mid-round linemen of recent memory...Dan Buenning kept the offensive line vibe alive. He's a pure guard, and a mauler, from a Wisconsin program known for churning out linemen in that vein. He could quickly develop into starting right guard material, and at worst, his nasty streak in the run game will provide some depth...Donte Nicholson will likely fill the John Howell role, at least for starters. He should be much better in the box at first, and hopefully the pass recognition will develop later on. The Sooner play the Cover Two, so he has a leg up there. Some of the overenthusiastic in the Buccaneer Nation have compared him to John Lynch, but that's a bit much. In any case, he can be a physical special teamer and possibly the physical safety we missed last year after losing the aforementioned Mr. Lynch in 2004...Larry Brackins was one of those guys you heard a lot about before the draft. He was the only JUCO (junior college) player taken. His lack of experience, the lack of scouting material, and the questions about the competition he faced, prompted a lot of questions and probably cost him the day one selection his talent would have justified. He's built a lot like Plaxico Burress, of the Giants, and looks like he could be a similar player. He doesn't have elite speed (clocked at 4.63 in the 40) but his upside is staggering, and I could forsee him becoming a fade-route terror in the red zone...Our run defense was horrible last year, especially up the middle, and that probably prompted the selection of widebody Anthony Bryant of the Tide. Much like the linebackers - and everyone else in our defense - the defensive tackles we covet are usually smaller, one gap, penetrator types. Bryant is built more like Gilbert Brown than Brad Culpepper. He's listed at 6'3 335, but I'd safely add 15 pounds to that. He's a clogger, and he should be an immediate factor on running downs from the first day of camp. He could even end up the starting nose tackle. He's probably the late rounder our fanbase is most excited about...I was outraged when we took fullback Rick Razzano in the draft. At the time, he had a pending assault trial for beating the tar out of a much smaller student. It was eventually declared a mistrial, which is not the same as innocent, but it means he can play, even if some aren't happy about it. Anyway, I know little about him from college, but the clippings I've been reading make it sound like he's not only going to make the team (no easy feat for a 7th round fullback), but he may take Mike Alstott's roster spot. As for the other matter, not anything to do about it, so I'm gonna play it by ear...Paris Warren was the favorite target of top pick Alex Smith (you know, that one) in Urban Meyer's spread option offense. He has 6'3 size and solid speed, and he's a work in progress. He's have to beat out a few guys to make the team...I don't know has much about Hamza Abdullah as I'd like. I know our Pac10 fanbase was excited about him, and that he can hit. I imagine he's going to have an uphill battle to make the team, what with the burgeoning glut we have at safety and the selection of the similar Donte Nicholson earlier in the draft...Finally, another receiver, Louisville's JR Russell, ended the draft for us. He's a lot like Warren, only more polished and with less upside. He played in a pass happy pro set offense in college, and it may give him an ace in making the team. If he had left as a junior, he probably have gone a couple rounds sooner...

Of course, what do I know?

The 2003 and 2004 Seasons: A Brief (but painful) Recap

2005-07-22T05:44:00.000-07:00

The 2003 Buccaneer season was the most painful in the history of the franchise. It was worse than 0-26. It was worse than any of the 3-13 nightmares of the 1980s .It was so bad, the logistics of installing a fireman's pole on the bandwagon were discussed, simply to save so many the jump. The record, 7-9, and even the game by game results, don't do it justice. The Buccaneers followed up a dream season, topped with a blowout Superbowl win, with a season fraught with more indignaty than an Adam Sandler double feature. The highlight of the year was a 17-0 blanking of the Eagles, on Monday Night Football, to usher in the "Linc." That was week one. When your season highlight is week one, chances are you didn't go deep into January. After that, it wasn't the losses so much as the manner of the losses. The next week, we tie the Carolina Panthers 9-9 with no time left on the clock and the gimmee extra point to win the game is blocked (we lose in overtime). That loss is the most painful in memory, until the Monday Night Football debacle against the Colts, featuring 21 points scored in under 5 minutes by Peyton Manning and co. Had that been the end, perhaps it wouldn't have been so epic, but in the overtime this flurry forced, the Colts kicker, Mike Vandergajckactgdt, missed the game winning FG (he would not miss once officially that year), and got to retry it following a phantom "leaping" penalty. Like I just said, he wouldn't "officially" miss all year. There was also a 98 year drive, surrendered to the Packers, at home, to lose a game. If you know Buc football, you know how unheard of that is.

We were officially eliminated from the playoffs that year on a rare Saturday game against the Falcons, week 16. We outplayed them all game, but quarterback Brad Johnson (known for his accuracy), threw 4 interceptions in the first half. We came within two points at the end with a late TD, but in the final indignity, the 2 point conversion was batted down.

The year ended with a blowout loss to the Titans.

2004 was better, because it couldn't have been worse. Sure, the record (5-11) was worse, but the manner of the losses - crushing, not close, for the most part - kept the deadly ray of hope out of the room. In fact, after an 0-4 start, I don't think I watched another game with genuine tension all season.

Things started out with a rash of injuries and a holdout by Pro Bowl receiver Keenan McCardell. Ancient, useless Tim Brown was signed to take his place but was quickly benched for lone bright spot Michael Clayton, who was one of the best rookie receivers in NFL history. The highlight of the year came this time in the form of a 27-0 blanking of the loathsome Atlanta Falcons, but it was barely a blip for them on their NFC Championship game radar. It was a lost year in many ways, as management had eschewed youngsters in favor of one, last geriatric Superbowl push, which needless to say, didn't pan out...But that's another post.

Soooo...that's really all the news that's fit to print, post 2002 and it's riches. 2003 can be summed up as a gut-wrenching sequel, 2004 as a total waste of time and (allegedly) effort.

Which brings us to the 2005 offseason...

Who I Am and Why I'm Doing This (and what "this" is)!

2005-07-22T05:20:00.000-07:00

Let me answer the first question right off the bat: My name is Leon. I'm twenty-five years old. I work as a financial audior (read: junior vasity accountant) for a major hotel in Nebraska. I'm a newlywed and a generally average guy. More relevant to this blog, I am the world's greatest Tampa Bay Buccaneer fan.

I spent a good chunk of my youth in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Bucs were down then (think LA Clippers), but so was I, and they brought me comfort. Despite many, many changes in my zip code and my life, I have never wavered. Through most of the horrible 1980s (my first clear memory was Steve Young getting traded so we could draft Vinny Testeverde), the early, Sam Wyched 1990s, the rebirth under Tony Dungy, the ultimate victory with Jon Gruden, the hard fall, and now, hopefully, the rebuilding, I have been there.

Why am I doing this? Well, there are three reasons which come immediately to mind. First, writing about the games and the events is a nice way to cement them into memory. After all, how much more would you remember about certain otherwise unexceptional days in your life if you'd written down the details at the time? Secondly, I enjoy writing, especially when it regards a topic I've invested myself in (consisting of football and politics, more or less). Finally, I work nights, and in an average eight hours, I do 2 hours of work, so I need something to fill the hours.

So, what will this be exactly? I'm not sure. Musings, rants, updates, observations, general what-have-you, flotsam and jetsom, etc. The only common thread will be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If you're reading this, you're likely a fan also, so maybe you'll enjoy this. Who knows?